As Apple's indie sheen fades and they're increasingly perceived as just another big consumer electronics company people are going to start feeling less and less comfortable about being locked in to the whole Apple ecosystem.
If kids haven't decided Apple is the establishment yet they will soon.
people are going to start feeling less and less comfortable about being locked in to the whole Apple ecosystem.
What is this lock-in that people keep talking about wrt to Apple? I can export my iCal data with .ics files. I can export my Address Book data with standard .vcf files. iTunes uses MP3, AAC and WAV files. iPhoto handles jpg, tiff, and png files. Mail.app grabs mail over IMAP and/or POP and data can be exported as mbox files. iTunes plays nicely with my Nokia E71. DRMd video files from the iTunes store are the only thing I can think of that can't be easily used outside of Apple products, but at least I have the alternative of using those videos on Windows (and it doesn't affect me since I don't buy videos from the iTMS).
The thing that keeps me "locked in" to Apple's products is that I like them better than the alternatives. But the moment that stops, there's nothing keeping me from moving over to Windows, Linux, *BSD, etc.
DRMd video files from the iTunes store are the only thing I can think of that can't be easily used outside of Apple products
That is the lock-in. A lot of people are pretty heavily invested in DRM'd Apple content now. They're not going back to Windows and they're sure as hell not going to Linux.
Where's the legal non-DRM alternative for purchasing TV shows and movies, though? (The illegal ones of course run fine on Macs.)
What do you mean when you say they're not going back to Windows? -- if they're not, it's because they've switched to the Mac and like it better, not because they're locked in, since their iTunes stuff plays just fine in iTunes for Windows.
There isn't really a good non-DRM alternative and the longer Apple rules this market the less likely it becomes that there ever will be one. Personally I think subscription services are the future here though.
I'm sure that many people that switched from Windows to Macs are enjoying the experience. The point is that what they did voluntarily today they may be compelled to continue doing in the future because it's too expensive to switch. A lot of people enjoyed life on Windows at first too and realized much later they were trapped.
Not video, but I still buy my e-books on Amazon - much wider hardware support (PC, Mac, Android, iPhone, iPad, Kindle). Not to mention Amazon has no incentive to prevent me from reading their content on someone else's device.
Even though they are all DRM'ed, my money feels more secure with Amazon than Apple.
The thing that keeps me "locked in" to Apple's products is that I like them better than the alternatives. But the moment that stops, there's nothing keeping me from moving over to Windows, Linux, BSD, etc.
Me too, but there's a problem here. The alternatives are so bad, Apple can rake me over the coals in terms of things like iphone-lockdown and I still won't leave because Apple is still better (in my relative, entirely biased, personal opinion!).
I would jump ship in a second, but there's nothing I think is worth jumping to.
"I would jump ship in a second, but there's nothing I think is worth jumping to."
When I hear someone say this it seems more like the lock-in is coming from within them not from Apple. If you can't find another setup worth jumping to you must not care about Apple's policies, etc as much as you say.
I never said the lock-in came from anywhere but from "within" me. Allow me to simplify:
(apple user experience) - (annoying policies) > (everbody else's user experience)
Now, this is just my opinion. You might think Linux on the desktop is great, or Windows doesn't make a bad workstation. But I think everybody else has such a godawful UX, I don't know where else to turn.
If someone else managed to couple a great UX with polite policies, I'd switch. Immediately.
Depends on what we're calling "the establishment". Popular brands known for having good products don't generally have trouble just because they're popular - just the opposite: Nike, Coke, etc do fine and to a good degree are bought because of their "establishment" brand. Of course there are going to be groups of kids who go against it just to go against it, though.
Only the hardcore hipsters are hipster enough to stop liking a band, company, restaurant, coffee shop, etc. because they got famous. OMG not indie enough!!! WTF is with this "eastablishment" talk? Apple has been a huge public company for probably longer than you have been alive.
Consumers will continue to love Apple as long as Apple makes products that bring value and make consumers' lives easier. If Apple starts making shitty products, consumers will stop buying.
You have to realize that only in the echo-chamber of the tech scene does startup, small company, etc. make someone want a product more. The average consumer seldom cares, and mostly doesn't even know, how large a company is. Consumers want products to solve problems and make their lives easier. That's it.
Apple is diversified across multiple revenue streams. Google relies on advertising for it's revenue. Apple is being pretty gangster in shipping iAds and attacking Google where it would hurt their bottom line.
With respect to revenue for third-party developers, Apple's competitive advantage is the 125 million credit cards in iTunes. Google needs to roll out Checkout worldwide. I suspect that will take 18 to 24 months. Then let's be generous and say they can add 50 million credit cards each year. That's 5 years to catch up.
5 years.
It's not about open vs closed. It's not about technology. It's about dollars.
There are many advantages to the web. One disadvantage is the amount of friction between your wallet and my wallet. The App Store is about as frictionless as you can get.
If Google wants to promote development for the web then they or a third-party payments system (PayPal? Amazon?) that users trust have to step up.
It's not about market share. It's about average revenue per user. It's about lifetime value of customer. If market share mattered everyone would be building for RIM and Nokia devices.
That's not a foregone conclusion! Google has a great platform but has shown weakness in a lot of areas (UI, fragmentation, infighting with Chrome OS, market, etc.) in pushing it. Some of these are being addressed now, some not.
Google's ChromeOS-Android waffle cost them a huge lead in tablets. If they do the same in the TV domain and let Apple dominate it with their upcoming new Apple TV things would not look well.
Two more areas where Apple trumps Google: retail stores and customer service. I can talk to a human by calling Apple, and the effect of having product in a store is very powerful.
I see this, and I can't help but feel the App Store is being looked at in the wrong way. The App Store isn't a separate product. It's a feature of the iOS system. Remove the App Store, and the iPhone and iPad become much less appealing. Yes, maybe directly the App Store contributes only 1% of the profit, but the App Store itself contributes to a lot more than just 1%. I'd say it's probably the most essential piece to all the other products right now.
Yes, exactly right. Too many people are looking at the App Store in isolation, without realizing the value it brings to the entire "system". The fact that almost all competitors are rushing to implement their own "app store" shows that it brings more value than a simple 1% of revenue.
Look Steve Jobs has set up the chess board very well. He attacked in all the right places and his SPEED was incredible. By the time the market had any chance to react even slightly BOOM new revolutionary product. iPod finally got some competitors... BOOM iPhone. The tried this with the iPad but... not cheap enough means that Android can fill the needed gaps since android does not have the Apple Markup. As more and more developers flock to Android Apple will lose.
The thing is that Apple makes it's money in a correct way. Just use our damn products because our hardware is where the money's at. Apple does not have the insane-o license checking for their operating systems, a battle that microsoft is fighting, and an uphill battle it is. They make 40% on iMac, 22% on iPhone, they don't care about the rest, the rest is to boost these numbers.
The problem was that a mistake was made. The iPad is too expensive and there is no iPad lite. If there was a 300 dollar iPad and a 500 dollar one, then android would have gotten shot in the kneecaps and would be dragging it's useless bottom across the moble battlefield... Apple tried the leap of iPod -> iPhone -> iPad, but the last leap was not as grand.
Yet they did succeed in one area. MS is dead. We are just waiting for the vultures. Unless Steve Jobs switches to Microsoft, all hope is lost. Why? Because windows is irrelevant. Windows 7 is CATCHING UP to Mac OS. And that is the CORE of Microsoft. MS Office is available on mac yet again, Steam (games) just moved to mac and is promoting mac development. Pretty soon people will simply jump ship with MS. Now apple does not allow Mac OS to be installed on non apple machines because... 40% of their revenue is in the apple hardware. If Mac OS was released as available on all hardware, nobody would by mac hardware... its expensive. We can't all afford the apple premium. It'll be the super upper class hardware that dell offers, but it's not. Apple will be forced to make up profits on the iPad/iPod/iPhone sales, which it can't. So apple does the right thing: Compete on less fronts with vendor lock-in.
O well. Farewell Microsoft, we hardly knew ye. All Hail Google.
"The iPad is too expensive and there is no iPad lite" - this is were the Android people go off the rails. Comparing the iPad to the Mac for pricing is off base, compare it to the iPod. The original iPod was $399 and has spawned other, lower cost models. The $499 price on the iPad doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors to make a profit and Apple is now set to buy parts in large quantities with cheaper, custom silicon.
If kids haven't decided Apple is the establishment yet they will soon.