Yes, we're in the Century of China. It's amazing how far China has come in the past 15 years. Next person on the moon will be from China? 20,000 miles of high-speed rail? Largest subway system in the world. From 0 to the biggest in 20 years. The largest everything...
Not so fast, there are many fundamental issues in China and Chinese economy, this does not mean I am betting on its failure. There is a tendency in the opinion-markets we either declare a total victory (with centuries attributed) or complete debacle. Actually in terms of Population 21st century is Century of Africa and in terms of economic expansion, we still have 86 years to go.
Given the record rate at which China is accumulating debt, and the fact that when you account for real inflation their GDP growth is down to a few points annually (if not contracting already), and their demographics are a ticking time bomb ('old before rich'), you don't think it's a bit early to call this the China century?
Can you elaborate on Japan's century? I'm a native Chinese holding opposite opinion from most of my peers back in China. So I think I know China enough. I'm curious on the Japan part. Most Chinese today are too stupid to take Japan seriously. And they only have the chance watching a balloon become bigger and bigger. I understand Japan has its own limitation, though. Thanks.
He's referring to the fact that in the 70's and 80's everyone thought Japan was going to dominate but their economy wasn't (and still isn't) built on the most solid foundation. The Japanese were buying everything on debt, include Pebble Beach, but they didn't have much backing up those payments.
China has a ton of hidden debt that's masked by the government. No one knows how much is there. When added to their cultural and demographic problems I doubt we are seeing China's ascendancy.
Thanks for your reply. I was thinking he means something else. That topic has been very hot in China as well.(At least before 2012, AFAIK. I gave up reading those since then.) They have similar symptoms. But the foundations are way different. China is playing with its structure, moving some parts to make certain parts look good and strong. It's a matter of time the structure's balance crashes or there is simply nothing left in the structure any more. Well, most of us only need to focus on now than the future. Today's cash for some kills the future of rest of us.
Yes, I'm fully aware of that as well. Both of them basically learned from the same teacher. However, even given the approaches are 100% identical, different bodies get different outcomes. They have different metabolisms.
A reasonable zero for modern China seems to me to be the end of the Cultural Revolution (I went and touched up my history to phrase it that way, but my notion was that the early 80s provide a better starting point than 1994 or 2000).
I'm curious what you (and others) think, not trying to have a hair splitting argument about it.
Sorry, I was referring to the Shanghai Subway. It was built over 20 years and is bigger than the NYC Subway. I checked and Beijing is actually bigger and started much earlier, however, and carries about a billion more people.
Yeah and an impending CHina Banking bubble/collapse [1]
One of the most chilling quotes: (Paraphrased): "China has managed to recreate the entire US banking sector, which was built over the last 100 years, in just under a decade"
I recently read [1] that one of the fastest company/startup to reach $1B in revenue is the Chinese mobile phone maker Xiaomi. This brand is #3 in global smartphone market [2]. All of this accomplished without having any big customer base in the US, Europe or Japan (traditionally large markets for tech). Personally, I find this amazing at so many levels. So yeah, I agree with you, China: "the largest everything".
And then biggest to stagnation or collapse. We've seen that no market or country can ever avoid this faith. It just takes longer and more catastrophic in countries where government puts a veil on everything to keep from prying eyes, and alarm ringers.
I mean if Li Kai Shing, the richest guy in HK sells all his real estate assets in China, it says something.
from the article:
"Please Singles' Day, can you pass by quickly?," reads a typical comment. "I didn't think I needed anything until today when I feel like I need everything I see. I'm so helpless!"
I think this is actually a marketing holiday that was created by Alibaba. From the article:
The idea of Singles Day was first dreamed up by the recently floated e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd five years ago to encourage people without partners to comfort themselves with some retail therapy.
Record 'Singles Day' online sales expected
The company's two major online marketplaces, Tmall and Taobao, are expected to remain the most popular shopping sites again this year, according to 70 percent of those surveyed by Nielson, who this year are on average expecting to spend 1,440 yuan ($235). Just over half of those polled (57 percent) said they planned to spend more than last year.
Here's an interesting fact that a lot of people don't seem to realize about Alibaba: they're an advertising company. They generate over 50% of their revenue from ads.
It's an interesting concept they put together. It's akin to the problem Google posed for Microsoft, in that there was no price to undercut as they did with Netscape (since Google's search is obviously free). That's how Alibaba was able to essentially eliminate eBay from the China market (eBay purchased a leading market / platform play, and had a meaningful position in China, prior to Alibaba's lift-off); eBay was charging fees for listings, mirroring their approach in the US, and Alibaba didn't. How do you compete against that? You pretty much have to be another Chinese juggernaut like Tencent or Baidu to even attempt it.
I use my debitcard. I trust them. Based on their wiki[1], they look like a huge company(e.g. Amazon) that doesn't necessarily have incentive to be randomly ripping people off via CC fraud.
That said, word of caution though
- Unless you want to pay insane shipping, your order won't arrive in the USA for like 4 to 6 weeks.
- Clothing sizes are tricky. I usually go one size bigger than my US/UK size. For my wife who wears S or XS, I have to get her medium - sometimes even that's too small.
- Clothing quality varies especially for lady's clothing. Nearly always it looks fantastic, but if you dare put it in the washing machine it will disintegrate. Wash by hand or dryclean.
- Order electronics at your own peril. That's just rolling dice. I've seen Android phones & tablets from them. When I have a few extra hundred lying around, I'm gonna try getting a laptop - and I fully expect to get junk. But I've also seen orders fulfilled surprisingly well.
- Customer Support doesn't usually have english as first language.
- So far, out of like 20+ orders. They've gotten maybe 2 completely wrong... or I misread the product-details(some of those pages can be tricky)
Whats the likely hood of receiving fake products if ordering from this site? I've had it happen myself with Amazon 3rd party sellers, however this site being in china makes me even more wary.
I've ordered many things (small accessories, cellphone & tablet screens, a cheap Android tablet, etc) from both Aliexpress and Chinese stores on eBay and always got what was announced. The cellphone screen was damaged, and they sent me another one without having to ship the first back or show any proof of the damage.
Besides the long shipping times (1-2 months to my door), it's been more reliable than shopping locally.
Ahah, yeah, that happens. A good way to avoid it is to buy from sellers with plenty of feedback. That shop only has 20 reviews, and only one for that particular product, so I definitely would stay away.
The US Dollar has gained strength since the financial crisis of 2007/09, not lost strength. There is presently no real threat to the US Dollar reserve standard anywhere.
And in fact it just went on a record parabolic climb in the last few months. Amazon is helped by this effect, it makes it cheaper for them to import goods for sale in the US. Exporters are the ones harmed by a stronger dollar.
"The people who say that this is due to the fact that they are investing in building up their business are showing their ignorance. Reinvesting and profits are two separate issues. Profits reflect the difference between revenues and costs on current business operations. These can all be used for investment in expansion (as opposed to being paid out as dividends and share buybacks), but they should still show up as profits. Amazon doesn't show profits or at least not much. This means that it costs them as much to run their business as they are getting from customers in revenue. That is not viable as a long-term model even if they are always expanding."
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edit:
[from a comment on that page]
Title: "Nothing Depreciates In Less Than 5 Years"
"Sorry folks, there is no way that would keep Jeff Bezos out of jail where their greater investment would explain the lack of accounting profit. There is nothing that depreciates in less than 5 years (20 percent annual rate) and most items at a considerably faster rate. This means the difference in re-investment rates could at best knock off a small share of Amazon's profits if they are not committing fraud.
"The math on this is simple. Assume Amazon's 'true' profits are rising 15 percent a year. Assume that they re-invest 100 percent of their profits, as oppose to the 30-40 percent that would be more typical. The higher depreciation over the last five years in this case would account for just 47 percent of Amazon's current year profits. The number would fall sharply if we assume the true rate of profit growth is 20 percent or higher and that some of Amazon's investments depreciate in more than 5 years."
I'm being downvoted to mean this is not the place to discuss this or I'm straying too far. If you want to know, read up on the Zero Hedge blog (I'm not affiliated, I'm just a reader, etc etc).
But basically what's wrong is Russia and China (so 1.5 billion people) plus the Middle East are all tired of the petrodollar and want out badly.
You can get an authenticated Gap's Shirt (from their official tmall) for around $15-20 USD (after discount/coupons, currently $40-50 on gap.com), so the deal is not bad even you compare with the coming US holidays discounts.
I bought a couple winter coats from them. BEWARE of the size, as obvious as it sounds, but I can often wear Medium or even Small sized clothes at H&M and Zara, so I picked 'Large' on Aliexpress and I swear it would be an Extra-Extra-Small here in the US.
Pivotal moment as the center of gravity of the world's consumer economy shifts to China.
The fervent dive into consumerism is incredible. Anyone in China seeing a counter culture emerging against this? Or is it too early