I have strong doubts that it's actually a real scam. My impression is that the scope is just totally blown out and the devs are trying their best. I think it's a classic example of committing to something you can't reasonably ship.
I'll totally buy into some scammy behavior like ship purchases. But that's basically the only source of cash until it actually ships (lol), and we all know that big engineering teams are very expensive.
I backed SC at the smallest level way back, and I still enjoy it from time to time. It's definitely very cool and unique, the progress is just slow. They're trying to do way too much, IMO, and they don't really know how to communicate timelines well with the community. Hell, I don't know how to create estimates well.
I think if the game had been in the hands of a talented game studio, things would have gone much differently. Having to build out the studio and company along with the game is likely a big task. Processes that already exist in a studio have to be created from scratch. Plus, a studio would have a much easier time cutting the scope to meet deadlines. :P
But I could totally be convinced that it's a real scam in the future. The amount of work that has been put into it so far seems quite large by my estimation, and I doubt they are just doing that work to run away with folks' cash. 300 engineers would cost enough that I could see them being tight on cash anyways, even with the large crowdfunding efforts.
I think the scam-ie-ness of it is more along the lines of predatory marketing.
They sell ship concepts for a lot of money. And are only now getting into the real meat-and-potatoes of the critical development. Things like server meshing, and appropriate object culling server/client side.
There are NO gameplay loops that don't involve a small variation of the following: Kill bounties / mine minerals / trade goods to earn money. Use money to buy ships. And even that is kinda bogus because your purchases may/may not persist between patches!
Any PVP is completely optional and not really a real gameplay loop.
Any group events are completely optional and not really a real gameplay loop. There are a few things you can do to speed up say mining loops by having a scout + cash maker(s).
There is ZERO logistics. There is ZERO economy (8 years in and they finally created money transfers).
Overall this is a project that has every incentive to keep developing forever and not deliver. Because of this they over-promised so so so much that it is almost impossible to meet these expectations.
Also development has been... insanely slow. Took them 7 years before they gave you a mobile respawn point on some ships. Took them 8 years to get aiming even remotely okay. Took them 8 years and NPCs still can't glitch out and stop moving/acting. 8 years later and only the latest top notch PC can even attempt to get 30fps in this game, and even then, not in most areas.
This has to be Fyre festival. The same thing happened there. "Just fund it, we'll figure it out." until... they couldn't figure it out. So they asked for more funding.
I've put a lot of hours into Elite: Dangerous which arguably has many of the same critiques. I've also put a lot of hours into No Man's Sky.
I have not purchased Star Citizen but I did have a free weekend where someone who owns one of the most expensive ships in the game gave my a virtual tour of the system on their drop dead stunning space yacht that Elite could only dream about.
Atmospheric flight was a blast and the planets are gorgeous, especially compared to NMS and the lifeless husks of Elite.
The city world was a whole nother level and I actually got lost in the bustling city.
I sort of loved that we had enough time on the return jump to head down to the bar on his yacht (complete with ridiculously deeply modeled bottles behind the bar) to "have a drink" and chat while sitting and watching stars stream by like in Star Trek.
Start Citizen has a lot that is wrong with it and the business side is a nightmare. But as an avid space geek, I'll be damned if they didn't break a new barrier for immersion with me.
All I want now is a game that blends the flight and universe mechanics of Elite with the procedural generation of planets and some gameplay loops like NMS, but with the graphics and jaw droppingly beautiful graphics and immersive fine details of Start Citizen. In VR, with whatever Frankenstein of a machine could actually run it smoothly without melting.
They have already accepted investment. I think they will run out of money and get picked up by a publisher. The game and audience is just waiting there, publishers would be silly not to bump it over the line. I doubt it would never get released though.
From what I can tell that's 27% of the _game systems_. Then they have the actual rest of the game to build with all the actual content. Planets, scenarios, dialogue, story (if there is one) etc.
Which is frankly MIA most of the time, Squadron 42.
The game content actually seems pretty quick to produce, given that it's been highly automated. They went from next to nothing to 20+ planets/moons with a mix of procedural and hand placed locations to visit in a short time frame. The technology means the artists basically paint the planets content in real time with brushes. Then the missions/social content is also a mix of hand written and procedurally generated content, eventually backed by an economic model that fuels the missions and NPC behavior. This all makes sense because it's an infinite open world, not a story game, but so far it plays pretty well.
The "hero" landing zones seem to take the longest. My guess is they will launch with only a handful of the star systems and build from there.
I don't think it's a good measure of man hours left though, given how turbulent the development has been I think you could throw away the first four years. Often not mentioned is the fact that they had to build out three AAA studios from nothing before getting meaningful progress underway, and S42 has been entirely scrapped and started again at least once.
I think they have a much clearer idea of how to finish the project now, and it's just taking the time execute it. Four year ago I honestly doubt they had it under control, and it's just lucky they had money beyond their wildest expectations coming through the door, which gave them the opportunity to fail enough times to begin to succeed.
I'm not convinced. Look at the most recent patch notes. It's ridiculous to be working on fluff like this when they don't have the core gameplay mechanics figured out (and this is just the fluff that they've actually completed):
- Bartenders will be seen keeping their work environment tidy by wiping down counters, disposing bottles, and polishing glasses, and chatting with patrons dynamically.
- Action that lets the player wipe their visor clear when it has become too obstructed by snow/rain/moisture. This action is available through the default keybind of LShift+Z or through the Inner Thought menu.
- We are introducing a new mechanic to planets that causes the temperature to rise and fall with the day and night cycle. This means that planets should be warmer during the day and cooler during the night.
Meanwhile, players still fall through the floors of ships, experience disconnects every 10 min, and PvP is an unplayable lag-fest. At least bartenders will now wipe down the counter after a player falls though it.
I'm also in agreeance in a way but I think you're missing some of the forest for the trees. It ultimately doesn't matter what order things get done in for the final release, it only matters because the game is in open development, something that also slows development down a whole lot itself. So we don't get to have our cake and eat it. The reason these things are prioritized now are because people won't shut the hell up about the bartender, and the visor is game breaking because you can't see anything after it ices up.
As well, there are three entire studios working on this project, they can do more than one thing at once. Working on NPC interaction does not stop the whole show until it's done.
I'm in agreeance because part of me wishes they'd stop fussing with the open development and just finish the game. But that's not fair or realistic.
The product and dev teams are missing the forest for the trees. Ice on the visor should not have been implemented in the first place. Why would they think it ok to implement an iced up visor with no way to clear it?
It seems to be evidence that they are not even thinking a single feature through.
You make a good point. Assuming you are correct on the scope creep issues, ironically if they actually were a scam and instead of building out an entirely new studio, hiring hundreds of people (which is what leads to so many delays and complications) if they just funneled the money out and hired a small team of developers to perpetuate the scam they probably would actually have more concrete Development done.
I don't think the ship purchases are scammy. If I tell you we have little plastic ships for sale, you buy a little plastic ship and you actually receive a little plastic ship, all parties have performed as agreed, that is not a scam.
the problem they were running into was that they got to much money early on. that distorted their vision of what's possible and instead of keeping it realistic, they shot for the moon.
I'll totally buy into some scammy behavior like ship purchases. But that's basically the only source of cash until it actually ships (lol), and we all know that big engineering teams are very expensive.
I backed SC at the smallest level way back, and I still enjoy it from time to time. It's definitely very cool and unique, the progress is just slow. They're trying to do way too much, IMO, and they don't really know how to communicate timelines well with the community. Hell, I don't know how to create estimates well.
I think if the game had been in the hands of a talented game studio, things would have gone much differently. Having to build out the studio and company along with the game is likely a big task. Processes that already exist in a studio have to be created from scratch. Plus, a studio would have a much easier time cutting the scope to meet deadlines. :P
But I could totally be convinced that it's a real scam in the future. The amount of work that has been put into it so far seems quite large by my estimation, and I doubt they are just doing that work to run away with folks' cash. 300 engineers would cost enough that I could see them being tight on cash anyways, even with the large crowdfunding efforts.