Sure, if your threat model is 1 incident per 100,000 days (274 years), your anal...

Sure, if your threat model is 1 incident per 100,000 days (274 years), your analogy holds.

274 years ago to Present time includes a lot of European wars. Claude AI gives me the following:

  7 years war, Napoleonic wars, Crimean war, Franco-Prussian war, WWI, WWII, Ukraine-Russia

So I would argue that your analogy is built on bad data and isn't exactly useful for real world.