It’s a bubble, but people have been saying it’s a bubble since before we hit the levels it will probably collapse to when the bubble pops. It might not even pop down below, say, where they were at the start of the year, even with another 6 months to run upwards in the meantime.
It’s pretty easy to just be a perma-bear, especially when it’s a company like nvidia with a dedicated hater club. it’s not a coincidence that the company with the next-biggest hater club is… apple.
The same people who were all in on $AMD-to-the-moon have been saying nvidia will pop for over 18 months at this point. People have been saying that MI200 will crash Nvidia’s party, no wait MI250X (it’s dual chip but presents like one, except it turns out that was a marketing lie in the datasheets!), no MI300X, wait MI400…
They’ve beeen saying that google and Amazon and AMD are gonna crash the party for years and years now, and we still aren’t even close to literally anyone even having a viable alternative to CUDA despite those years of internet hot-air. Apple is literally the closest and they still only have traction on inference, Nvidia’s the only game in town for training still, which is where all the money is.
Simple question, if you’re so sure: how many more years until anyone can use ROCm and not have to think about it? That’s something that only two companies offer, and both of them are in the title of this thread.
Again, reminder that the foremost contender for the third place title, is shipping AI-branded (“Ryzen AI Ultra 300”) laptop CPUs that require vendor enablement to use the neural cores… you have to not only build all the software, train it hard so that edge models are viable (oops, more money for nvidia) but then also you have to convince asus and MSI and clevo and sager to support it in their drivers on an ongoing basis. That’s the third place contender, and they don’t even have the software to run on it in the first place yet.
As much as people can’t help but trip over themselves predicting a pop any day now (for the last 18 months!) literally the third place contender is only just getting rolling, they are probably 10-15 years behind right now in terms of ecosystem. Might be able to do it in 5 if they hurry, but they also have to convince everyone else not to do their own stuff too - if everyone else runs around like a chicken with their head cut off, nvidia still wins.
Again, the only real ecosystem threats right now are apple and sony, and sony is starting from zero too (but they have a legitimate ecosystem unlike say AMD or intel). Intel/SyCL is a technical threat but it’s powerless without a social /ecosystem consensus behind it.
If it’s not a competitor taking over, that leaves a general collapse in AI, and frankly that’s just wishcasting at this point. There’s too much obvious value being delivered for it all to collapse to zero like some people are hoping. Again, not expecting - hoping.
The hater club never realizes they’re haters. That self awareness is the first thing to go. Same as with the apple haters who spent the last 4 years finding any and every reason to try and dunk on apple silicon lol.
Well personally, as an investor I’m more incredulous at the price. I hold both nvidia and apple and I’ve made good money from both. It’s worth looking at all the reasons for the price going up and what happens when the price goes down. So I’m definitely not an nvidia hater because I think they’re doing great things and clearly a brilliantly managed company, it’s just that if the market cap gets too big then there’s ultimately only one direction it can then go, and it’s all predicated on an AI future that I’m not certain is going to happen like it might in the best-case scenario given how we’re constructing LLMs and how their corpuses of data are mined out already. My other main concern is towards how fickle human beings are - limitations with AIs are likely to cause a huge backlash once they become annoying or we feel like we’re being fobbed off by corporates forcing us to interact with an AI agent that can only stick to a strict corporate line. It’ll be boring, and people don’t like being bored. I’m not convinced that the current approaches to AI are going to deliver the goods that the graphs of progress are promising. And what’s more is that it already seems like everyone who wants to use ChatGPT or Claude is able to use it, and in three years the hardware cost of running all that will have dropped by 4x, not run away as some nvidia-boosting exponential.
It’s pretty easy to just be a perma-bear, especially when it’s a company like nvidia with a dedicated hater club. it’s not a coincidence that the company with the next-biggest hater club is… apple.
https://paulgraham.com/fh.html
The same people who were all in on $AMD-to-the-moon have been saying nvidia will pop for over 18 months at this point. People have been saying that MI200 will crash Nvidia’s party, no wait MI250X (it’s dual chip but presents like one, except it turns out that was a marketing lie in the datasheets!), no MI300X, wait MI400…
They’ve beeen saying that google and Amazon and AMD are gonna crash the party for years and years now, and we still aren’t even close to literally anyone even having a viable alternative to CUDA despite those years of internet hot-air. Apple is literally the closest and they still only have traction on inference, Nvidia’s the only game in town for training still, which is where all the money is.
Simple question, if you’re so sure: how many more years until anyone can use ROCm and not have to think about it? That’s something that only two companies offer, and both of them are in the title of this thread.
Again, reminder that the foremost contender for the third place title, is shipping AI-branded (“Ryzen AI Ultra 300”) laptop CPUs that require vendor enablement to use the neural cores… you have to not only build all the software, train it hard so that edge models are viable (oops, more money for nvidia) but then also you have to convince asus and MSI and clevo and sager to support it in their drivers on an ongoing basis. That’s the third place contender, and they don’t even have the software to run on it in the first place yet.
As much as people can’t help but trip over themselves predicting a pop any day now (for the last 18 months!) literally the third place contender is only just getting rolling, they are probably 10-15 years behind right now in terms of ecosystem. Might be able to do it in 5 if they hurry, but they also have to convince everyone else not to do their own stuff too - if everyone else runs around like a chicken with their head cut off, nvidia still wins.
Again, the only real ecosystem threats right now are apple and sony, and sony is starting from zero too (but they have a legitimate ecosystem unlike say AMD or intel). Intel/SyCL is a technical threat but it’s powerless without a social /ecosystem consensus behind it.
If it’s not a competitor taking over, that leaves a general collapse in AI, and frankly that’s just wishcasting at this point. There’s too much obvious value being delivered for it all to collapse to zero like some people are hoping. Again, not expecting - hoping.
The hater club never realizes they’re haters. That self awareness is the first thing to go. Same as with the apple haters who spent the last 4 years finding any and every reason to try and dunk on apple silicon lol.