Well personally, as an investor I’m more incredulous at the price. I hold both nvidia and apple and I’ve made good money from both. It’s worth looking at all the reasons for the price going up and what happens when the price goes down. So I’m definitely not an nvidia hater because I think they’re doing great things and clearly a brilliantly managed company, it’s just that if the market cap gets too big then there’s ultimately only one direction it can then go, and it’s all predicated on an AI future that I’m not certain is going to happen like it might in the best-case scenario given how we’re constructing LLMs and how their corpuses of data are mined out already. My other main concern is towards how fickle human beings are - limitations with AIs are likely to cause a huge backlash once they become annoying or we feel like we’re being fobbed off by corporates forcing us to interact with an AI agent that can only stick to a strict corporate line. It’ll be boring, and people don’t like being bored. I’m not convinced that the current approaches to AI are going to deliver the goods that the graphs of progress are promising. And what’s more is that it already seems like everyone who wants to use ChatGPT or Claude is able to use it, and in three years the hardware cost of running all that will have dropped by 4x, not run away as some nvidia-boosting exponential.
