Eh. It's happening already but won't be a single year. It will be a slow stream of people to either Linux or MacOS. Feature-wise the year of the Linux desktop happened last year, maybe the year before.
Normal people can't even deal with windows when it breaks - I just picked a gaming laptop up for $1000 off list because it "wouldn't boot" but just needed a reimage.
I really want to love Linux but man it's endlessly frustrating to have any guide be out of date or wrong since it's for another distro or just not have a GUI for doing things that are generally everyday. it's getting better but still way over a lot of users heads.
Maybe in the form of a chrome book Linux could shine for an average joe. We are already dealing with people who don't understand files or the desktop metaphor since they are only used to phones or tablets.
Ubuntu is already the Chromebook Linux that mostly work like a tablet (With just enough desktop metaphor to avoid being a gesture and shortcut based Apple clone).
A lot of those confusing guides don't exist for Ubuntu. They're either stuff you don't need, or stuff that you probably don't want if you're the type who likes Ubuntu.
If you want to fix this, here is what we need to require all OS vendors to do to keep their copyrights:
1. All abandoned/EOL digital products deserve some level of support if at least 100,000 people are using them and willing to pay $20 per year for support. That's $2 million per year, which can hire a few developers and run a few servers, especially if large downloads are done by torrents. The torrenting program can be invisible to the user. Part of that support is implementing #2, #3, and #4 (below.) Another part of that support is security updates for the software or firewall definition files that make a venerable system less venerable (think Cisco ACLs.) A final part of that support is support for new file types and protocols.
In the UIS, the Federal Trade Comission (FTC) will define "products" according to their having at least 51% shared source code, and the platform they run on. For example, Windows XP for x86 is one "product." This prevents someone from claiming that Windows XP is actually 2,000 separate products.
2. All digital products must be able to be run in a virtual machine (VM.) For example, with old versions of Windows this is simply releasing a license key to upgrade the licensing.
3. No digital product can be licensed in such a racist way that it is not accessible in any part of the world. Everything must be available to people of all races, everywhere. A "this product is not available in your region" message is always unacceptable. For many digital products, that might mean allowing the download of new versions that are compatible with all regions. Download by torrent is 100% OK, but the process needs to be as idiot-proof as possible.
4. All digital products must support multiport systems, meaning one PC can have multiple local users on it simultaneously using different keyboards, mice, audio devices, and monitors. Microsoft Windows Multipoint Server used to do this.
5. All new OSes must be able to rip an image from an old system drive from that same processor architecture, and/or from a previous version of that OS (which has enough people paying for support) and run it as a VM. Imagine installing Windows 12, plugging in half a dozen old system drives, and having all your old PCs as VMs represented by icons on your desktop.
6. All source code and design documents for digital products must be made available to the Copyright Office. Such documents are released when a product is no longer offered free and reliable security updates or is otherwise considered EOL.
Wow, that's a lot of text to describe things that are never going to happen... dear Santa?
It'd be easier to make a lot of people aware of this upcoming "fuck you, environment", maybe get the news, celebrities and politicians talking about it. How about John Oliver's Last Week Tonight, or Greta Thunberg (or has she been cancelled because she said "Free Palestine!"?)
I have hundreds if not thousands of pages of ideas to change the laws.
Maybe I will write it all in a re-write of the laws and run for office on that platform one day.
I wonder if it will go as well as the time I tried to run for school board. I was refused the right to file my paperwork, and the police dragged me out of the city clerk's office. The lesson I learned is to never turn my back on a cop.
Probably because other platforms are doing it? iOS, MacOS (afaik?), Android (on some phones you can install unofficial OS images but they'd lack the official seal of "secure", although hacks are available).
It's still a disgusting act of "fuck the planet and its inhabitants" if Microsoft stops offering an OS for computers without TPM. Why not do it like Android, sure some apps that will mandate security (like banking or Netflix 4K) won't be able to run, but better than dragging us to +3°C even faster.
Obviously there's a chicken and egg problem there... if MS's "insecure" platform remains viable, banks, Netflix, etc won't dare release "Secure Windows only" software and exclude a large userbase from their market, and so their apps will remain "insecure"...
I wonder if Microsoft will continue to patch Windows 10 even after it's official EOL date like what they did with Windows XP. That thing ended up receiving like 12 years of support.
No they are not going to scrapheap, those PCs are going to chew on for many years, while being parts of endless amount botnets as free units. So Microsoft will be forced to support unless they want to see internet breaking DDoS every week.
Windows 10 was going to be the last version of Windows.
Windows 11 exists and is full of advertisements.
Windows 11 requires new hardware for an artificial and plainly bullshit reason. It could only be more bullshit if the explanation used the exact words "security experience".
The enshittification of Windows marches on. Even as my distant second OS that I boot only if I have to, it's quite annoying.
As long as we don't make the entire world hate FOSS by convincing und users to try Manjaro or something, this might be Linux's time to shine