The invention of cars didn’t provide more jobs for horses. I’m not convinced artificial minds will make more job opportunities for humans.
A lot of that high level work is probably easier to outsource to an AI than a lot of the mundane programming. If not now, soon. How long before you can walk up to a computer and say “hey computer - make me a program that does X” and it programs it up for you? I think that’ll be here before I retire.
Wouldn't you agree the invention of the car created a lot more jobs (mechanics, designers, marketing people etc) than it eliminated?
As far as I can tell, this will only increase the demand for people who actually understand what is going on behind the scenes and who are able to deploy all of these new capabilities in a way that makes sense.
It did. But not for horses. Or horse riders. And I don’t think the average developer understands how AIs work well enough to stay relevant in the new world that’s coming.
Also, how long before AIs can do that too - before AIs also understand what is going on behind the scenes, and can deploy all these new capabilities in a way that makes sense? You’re talking about all the other ways you can provide value using your brain. My worry is that for anything you suggest, artificial brains will be able to do whatever it is you might suggest. And do it cheaper, better or both.
GPT4 is already superhuman in the breadth of its knowledge. No human can know as much as it does. And it can respond at superhuman speeds. I’m worried that none of us are smart enough that we can stay ahead of the wave forever.
GPT4's "knowledge" is broad, but not deep. The current generation of LLM's have no clue when it comes to things like intent or actual emotion. They will always pick the most obvious (and boring) choice. There is a big gap between excellent mimicry and true intelligent thought.
As a developer you don't need to know how they work, you just need to be able to wield their power. Should be easy enough if you can read and understand the code it produces (with or without it's help).
Horses don't play a part in this; programmers are generally not simple beasts that can only do one thing. I'm sure plenty of horse drivers became car drivers and those that remained found something else to do in what remained of the horse business.
Assuming we do get AI that can do more than just fool those who did not study them, do you really think programmers will be the first to go? By the time our jobs are on the line, so many other jobs will have been replaced that UBI is probably the only logical way to go forward.
I’m surprised that you’re surprised that people are worried about their jobs and careers