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Tesla earns $690M less than expected in third quarter (theguardian.com)
68 points by jethronethro on Oct 18, 2023 | hide | past | favorite | 134 comments



We’ve switched from aiming to get a Tesla to just a Mazda PHEV instead, mainly because my wife doesn’t want to bankroll anymore Elon behaviour. Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a few conversations like that around the dinner table these days.


I can't think of someone who, for a lot of people, went from hero to villain faster than Elon. I also dreamed of having a Tesla in the past, but the magic is now gone, and I can't stomach the thought of giving him money.


I bought one before all his shenanigans and I regret it. I went from loving the car to feeling pretty gross about it in the course of like 3 weeks.


Yep. That's us, too. We had been planning to get a Tesla for many years but wouldn't be caught dead in one now.


Sorry, why wont you get caught dead driving one?


It’s not legal to drive while dead. It’s best not to get caught.


That seems like one of those "there's no rule about a dog playing basketball" Air Bud things - unless you can cite a specific law, I don't believe it's actually on the books as being illegal. Also not something I'd recommend, but I'd be very surprised to see a law specifically banning it.


It's illegal to drive without a license, but your license doesn't automatically get suspended/canceled when you die - a loved one has to do the legwork to cancel it. So probably technically legal until a court case involving someone declared legally dead who's just driving around somewhere?


What are they gonna do if they catch me - put me away for life?


You wouldn't drive a car because you're worried about what other people may think of you because they don't like the CEO of the company that made the car that they see you driving in?


Teslas aren't special enough anymore to buy even though you and a good portion of the population can't stand the guy who comes to mind whenever you think of Tesla. Especially since the "coolness" of Tesla has always been a big part of the draw

It's like mypillow for many people, why would you buy any of that guy's products if you can't stand him?


Is actually an outlandish thought to you? You must think I'm insane for not eating at Chick-fil-A because of their stance on gay marriage, or for not buying pillows from that weird Trump aficionado. Do you really not think about who you are giving your money to, or do you just not care?


He said "wouldn't be caught dead in" which implies fear of embarrassment and judgement from others, not a principled stance, which is completely outlandish to me.

Your stance is not outlandish to me, but I do fall in the "just not care" camp. I have no problem at all doing business with people who disagree we me as long as the transaction is acceptable on business terms.


I don’t give a shit. I’m eating Chick-fil-A. Forty years from now I’m not gonna remember Trump this or gay marriage that. If I want to feel like I’m helping people I’ll go actually help real people instead of partaking in some weird power games played between people I don’t know.


That is not sane behaviour. Do you really think you would be friends with all the people you buy stuff from?


Why should I deal with a company that I detest for whatever reasons?

I don't use any Facebook products, I don't buy anything at Amazon, ever, and frankly, I also would never ever spend money for a Tesla.

I don't think making such choices is insane in any way, shape or form.


You dont buy anything from Amazon, what are you using instead ?


You may not think it is. But it is. If none of your reasons are because of those companies, their product or how they are run, then it is insane.


Oh, of course not. This is not about friendship, but about avoid supporting people with values that I strongly disagree with.


But that's fundamentally impossible. Strongly disagree with on what? And at what level down the rung does the support have to be for you to be comfortable disagreeing with them?

It's okay to not act rationally or not be sane in all decisions, but it's definitely not normal.


It's quite simple. I do some superficial research about the companies I frequently buy from, and if they support a cause I strongly disagree with, I try looking for an alternative. Sometimes there is no alternative, then that's ok, but if there is, then I switch. Sometimes I don't even need to research, because they will loudly announce these values by themselves. Have you really never heard of a boycott? "Voting with your dollars"?


I've heard of boycotting something based on the behaviour of that something, not by the location that the something is funded.

If you want to boycott things based on an abstracted emotional value that's up to you, but it's not normal.

Elon posting on Twitter has very little to do with Tesla cars.


Elon was only able to buy Twitter because Tesla sold a lot of cars. Not giving more power to people you don't want to have more power is not an abstract emotional value.


Seems like you have a case of Musk Derangement Syndrome


Labelling any criticism as "_ Derangement Syndrome" is a lazy dismissal.


How many Hitler paintings do you own?


How did you come up with your username? It seems unique?


I'm a huge fan of Tifa from the 1997 role-playing video game FF7.


Huh? How is it not sane?

Voting with your dollars is a key tenet of capitalism. If a company is run by unethical people, I sure as hell won't be doing business with them. Especially when there's plenty of competition, like there is in the EV market.


Yes voting with your dollars based on the value, reception or controversies of that product is super capitalistic and very normal.

Voting with your dollars based on your emotional feelings of some persons actions outside that product is not normal.

There are many people who confuse the two, and the line is constantly being blurred, but one is normal, the other is not. Everyone is free to do non-normal things though.


If it is something that many people do, how is it non-normal?


You find that weird too?

I wonder if there are people who reside in rural areas who are willing to live without internet rather than have it delivered to them because they don't like the CEO who owns the satellites and the company that put them into orbit.


There are certainly people in rural areas who stopped drinking their preferred beer because they disagree with the values of the beer company. That's the free market for you.


The difference of course is that there are countless of beers.

But only one Starlink.


Similar. Waited ages in Australia for the Y to arrive, then Elon went nuts, then real competition started to arrive. Everything from Audi to BYD here now, some even have buttons where buttons make UX sense.


An electric Audi in Australia has an entry level 2022 sedan model price of AUD157,000 is hardly "real competition".

A Model 3 2023 Tesla entry level 2023 has a price of $61,000.

BYD Atto3, sure. Entry level order price is AUD48,011.

But if one is so sensitive and basing purchasing options on an American billionaire's behaviour then surely you would also take into consideration that purchasing a BYD is financing multiple multi-millionaires who are members of, and have close ties to, the human rights abusing and despotically led CCP.

Which one is the lesser evil here?

* https://www.carsguide.com.au/audi/e-tron

* https://www.tesla.com/en_au/model3/design#overview

* https://bydautomotive.com.au/atto-3


If you tie your company to the your identity person as tightly as Musk has done, you shouldn't be surprised when people make purchasing decisions based on the political and social views you espouse so loudly. Nobody knows who BYD's leadership is unless they look really hard.


so lack of awareness makes support of that behavior more acceptable?


It's the opposite, surely – awareness makes support of that behaviour unacceptable.


You also don’t want to drive a car designed by someone who is off their rocker, for safety and reliability reasons.


Cult of personality is real


I’m not getting one, but I would like access to the Tesla charging network


Burning gasoline to thwart a billionaire.


Buying an 8000 pound electric truck to avoid burning gasoline.


TIL no one else sells electric vehicles?


I guess this was expected with the price cutting of many of their models over recent months. It was an indication that they weren't selling as quickly as they hoped. The wrinkle here is that the cyber truck starts delivery in November, so that could lead to a resurgence in overall sales volume. Not sure if it's wise to short Tesla just yet. (not financial advice obv)


It'll be interesting to see how well the Cybertruck sells... it's rather niche mostly because it's fucking hideous.


I mean if you don't look at the thing, on paper it's fantastic. When you get to the looks - well, let's just say I canceled my order last year because I couldn't imagine myself driving it (in addition to the fact that it's so late).


Ot may not be such a great vehicle after all[0].

Sure engineering problems may be solved, but personally I don't give Mr. musk credit that he really cares enough if the thing looks "cool" and can be appropriately hyped.

[0] https://www.wired.com/story/a-leaked-tesla-report-shows-the-...


FTA: "Braking performance was one of the worst areas of the report. Tesla’s engineers were aiming for a score of 7, or “fair,” on the Society of Automotive Engineers rating scale, but the alpha version achieved only a 4, or “poor” rating. According to the report, in January 2022, the Cybertruck’s brake pedal pressure pad was still under design, and so the alpha experienced “excessive pedal travel and inconsistent stop,” and “excessive pitch during friction braking,” braking during turning issues, as well as power braking instability."

As someone who will probably see a lot of these on the road near me, it's kind of terrifying.


If anything, Elon Musk has proven that he knows how to make electric cars. And space rockets.

You may dislike or even hate the man, but he’s a highly successful engineer.


the problem is you will draw a lot of attention to yourself, and finding parking spots


The attention issue is the opposite of a problem for a lot of people, though. Especially people who drive large trucks. So I think there's a market there.


and im not sure it can actually "truck" in the same way a F-150 or Chevy can


> fucking hideous

I felt that way about Model 3 because it was just too different. I couldn't get past the lack of a grill. Now I got one sitting in the garage. It grows on you after a while.


I don’t think most people would put those on similar levels of hideousness. Model 3 just looked like a budget car, not an avant garde statement piece.


The M3 has great looks to me. I’d own one if I didn’t purchase an EV a year before they became generally available.


It will vastly outsell the X, EV F-150 and Hummer.

But there are only so many social media influencers who can afford one.


The F-150 is the top selling vehicle in the US. Not car, top vehicle. The X and Hummer aren't anywhere near the same level of sales.

The F-150 EV has orders through next year, and has a long history and branding behind it. Now Ford has some issues with Labor that are going to impact production, but I have little doubt the EV Fords will do well.


Only if they move production to China:

https://tfltruck.com/2023/10/ford-lays-off-workers-f-150-lig...

It's a flop, but the hybrid won't be.


IMO the Cybertruck is going to end the F150's dominance if it lives up to its expectations. You'll see almost none for the first year, some in two years, and way too many in year three.


The cybertruck was announced in a different world, there’s no longevity to the novelty of something so “weird”. The high-like feeling of “oh my god that’s so weird I need one” eventually wears off and Tesla’s half-decade delays have let the moment slip through their fingers long ago.

The electric F150 and the Rivian are already delivering on the promise of a great electric truck. All the cybertruck has going for it now is novelty and with Musk’s cultural standing worsening day by day, it’s hard to imagine which ordinary people are going to ever buy the thing.


I agree with this mostly, but I do wish my car had stainless steel instead of paint.

Paint is the most fragile part of the car and it's dealing with that is a fact of life but it shouldn't need to be.

With more advanced manufacturing maybe someone can make stainless steel car that doesn't look like it's from a 1994 video game.


I think there’s a very very low chance. I live in Utah and have land in Wyoming. I own the hybrid (powerboost) F150 and use it for its intended purposes constantly. I am in southern Utah and northern Wyoming all the time. There is simply zero infrastructure for electric vehicles in the areas I frequent. I get 600 miles per tank and there are gas stations everywhere, zero charging stations. Plus people hate Elon and the cybertruck is the ugliest car ever made.


Montana here. If you have a petrol pickup you're considered a bit of a sissy. Diesel is what you want to demonstrate masculinity. Electric. Yeah no.


do people in the west really say petrol? east coaster here and never heard that outside of britain


“gas” is ambiguous, especially when there are CNG vehicles on the road.


I don’t think so. Been living in Seattle for almost 8 years, spent a lot of time in CA and Oregon as well. The only time I ever heard word “petrol” was in british media.


I grew up in Arizona around plenty of macho truck people and never heard “petrol.” I suspect an expat.


No, never.


I'm going to guess dboreham is Canadian?


I'm in Alberta, aka North Montana. Can confirm Diesel is big here, tho there is arguably a practical need.

There is some anecdotal story about how Chevy had a batch of diesel Colorado trucks and they sold out couple hours hour they made them available online.


Gassers are better for starting in sub-0F temps, thought it would get that cold in Montana but guess it's location dependent


I think it looks fantastic. It's the only car that doesn't look like every other car. I just don't want a ute, I want that exterior design on a Model Y layout.


Wouldn’t folks just charge at home? How many miles per day do you drive? I own an EV and I charge at home except on 300+ mile road trips


600 miles per tank is enviable! I’d love to not need to fuel up so much. What’s your actual milage?


My lifetime mpg is just about 20 on the dot. It’s a 30.6 gallon tank. Keep in mind I’m driving through canyons and mountain passes and just about maxing out my payload over half the time I drive. It’s incredible.


I would imagine Wyoming and Montana pickup buyers aren’t particularly representative.


You're kidding right? The F150 is an actual work truck. Designed as such with parts readily available when it brakes.


Most people buying them don't buy it for work and maybe use it to move a couch once a year. So I guess shitty EV pickup from overhyped brand might sell there...


They're not uncommon to see as a fleet vehicle


hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

sure


Not sure if it's wise to short Tesla just yet. (not financial advice obv)

yeah, I don't think I have seen a bigger wealth destroyer in my lifetime than betting against Tesla. So many fortunes and careers ruined over the past 13 or so years Tesla has been public, whether on a large scale like hedge funds or smaller like /r/WallStreetBets. Just when Tesla looks its weakest, it has a tendency of suddenly and inexplicably surging 20% or more in a month. happens so many times.


Would have been wise to have done so earlier today.


That's just gambling at a worse level than poker on such a short(no pun intended) timeframe.


but then people get greedy and stay short for too long


> The wrinkle here is that the cyber truck starts delivery in November

I have a hard time believing that there will be any meaningful quantities - there's absolutely no idea on pricing just a few weeks out from "deliveries" (but I'm willing to nearly guarantee that the promised $39K and $49K models will be nowhere in sight).

Well, maybe not such a hard time. The Tesla Semi "started delivery" last November and supposedly is in production, but no-one's been able to find out pricing information on that, either...


Tesla has the weirdest vehicle lineup of any manufacturer.

Throwing all their weight behind everyone wanting a 3 and Y was always going to be a problem.

I don’t think the refresh will help that much either, it will just kill demand in the interim.

They need more vehicles, and variety.


> They need more vehicles, and variety.

I can't imagine a worse take. That's like saying Apple's problem is that they need to have more phone varieties like Android.


Obviously you don't realize the Apple is currently selling 8 different iPhones (and even more when you consider different storage and color options). iPhone is tremendously popular because it hits all the price points and varieties that people want.


...versus the tens of thousands (maybe hundreds of thousands by your latter definition) of such combinations for Android. I mean c'mon it's not even close.


those tens of thousands are made by several different companies and run the gamut from poor people cope phones to high-end flagships.

im not one to defend apple but they have a few models that range from mid-level to fancy af


But so does Tesla. They have high end (S and X) and lower end (3 and Y). They also have plenty of options with each trim level so you can get a base model version or one fully decked out. Plus, most of Apple's "8 iPhones" are just previous years' models. Tesla famously doesn't do standard model years but I'd challenge anyone to point out a specific need or level that one can't get between Tesla's trim levels, options and used models (trucks obviously notwithstanding).


> The wrinkle here is that the cyber truck starts delivery in November

Nah, they will find way to delay it again.


Tesla is preparing for the coming onslaught of Chinese BEVs by lowering prices. Chinese companies have currently over 180 big ships for transporting cars ordered and in production. Very soon the Chinese car makers will take over the auto world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P73KmleCuBg


I wonder if they will stop making the S/X, they just don't sell enough of them to warrant supporting the lines. Just make the nice things in those models options on the 3/Y and simplify the business. The best car is no car.


They've already stopped producing them for right hand drive countries, which means it's unavailable in Australia entirely.

But I can't imagine it's not worth it to produce them at all, they'd be far higher margin than the 3 or Y.

Marques Brownlee showing his Plaid off on YouTube constantly has to be about the best marketing that company can get.

So maybe, but I doubt it.


I don't think it supports the vision to not replace different classes of gas cars.

To replace ICE cars, wouldn't you need one for each segment:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_classification


No you don't. You just need to provide a luxurious experience at a good price.


I feel like with Tesla's build quality and after purchase service being "polarizing", that may be easier said than done.


Hearing such accounts makes me believe that it either varies so much or the outliers online are just being loud, it isn’t even funny. I have been happy as an elephant with their service and build quality. Been a model 3 owner for 4 years with exactly zero problems. The only “issue” was a tiny panel gap in the front that you would have to intentionally search for to notice. Know a few other people who own it, no complaints either (one bought it on release, another one a couple years ago).

Punctured a tire once and noticed only once i got a few miles away from home. It was a rather large rip on the side, so i couldn’t make it back home myself, as the tire would deflate from pumped to “dangerous to drive” within a minute of me driving. Called up tesla, they towed my car to the nearby service center at no charge within an hour.

Punctured a tire another time, but it was a nail in the center of the tire (aka a small puncture), so i could make it home. Called up tesla, their mobile service van arrived at my apartment building, fixed up the tire, and left. Cost me around $60 or so iirc.

Not even mentioning that I saved so much money on not having to pay for gas and not having to replace brakes (given that the wear on them is so small, due to regenerative braking doing most of the work to stop the car). The only actual maintenance I had to do so far was replacing the windshield wiper fluid.


many punctured tires, never been helped in 1 hour, never by tesla tire van. Lots of issues with car (door handles 3x, rear defrost - never fixed, motor went, more I can't remember)

Service was ok in the beginning, but then got worse as more cars overwhelmed tesla. Mostly I felt like I was begging to get an appointment in the near future and they typically kept the car a few days. I did get a loaner on two occasions, other times out of luck.

The experience is not up to par with other car shops (most especially cars of similar price).


Yup. I have an Audi and a Lincoln. The Lincoln dealership will for scheduled services and the two minor recalls it has had, will not just give me a loaner, but drive it to me, take my car, and then bring it back to me when done (and I live thirty miles from the dealership).

Not sure whether it's because of my location, or that it's my third Audi, or the one I have is a higher end model, but that dealership always makes sure I have a loaner, too, and it's usually a demo model, higher end, and looks immaculate - I've heard stories of people getting filthy and beat up Tesla Model 3s for their loaner, if they're not just given Uber credits or a shrug.


Nah, the Model S (especially the plaid) is their flagship. Even if economically it doesn't make too much sense, it elevates the brand.


over a year ago, you told me on this platform that elon is an incredible engineer. Do you still think so?


Mainly because recessions start to pinch USA and in force in China. EU themselves start to see lacking of cheap energy is biting into their gdps.


Not sure why this is a surprise - they cut margin (by reducing prices) to maintain share.


I’m far from a financial analyst myself, but I’m pretty sure the people who come up with the “expected” numbers are financial analysts who would be well aware of Tesla’s public pricing changes. So a better way of looking at is that people with a vested interest in correctly estimating earnings based on all available knowledge were surprised to the downside.


That basically sums it up. Year over year their sales are way up but people who guessed (overoptimistically) what the number is are disappointed. Overall the company is doing great but interest rates really are killing any sort of purchase like this right now.


If you take an ensemble average of the estimates over all companies and all quarters, they do a pretty good job. Tesla just underperformed the market.


Generally the goal there is to equal out by increasing volume.

Decreasing prices and not making up for it is kinda an oops. And "less than expected" - I mean, people are not unaware of the price reductions, so that says there was some failure along the way.


> Generally the goal there is to equal out by increasing volume.

The economics are a bit trickier: For any good or service, the demand curve is curved; it's not x * y = R, where R is some fixed revenue number. If you think about it, of course you can affect revenue by changing the price. Otherwise Tesla could charge $1 or $1,000,000 per car and bring in the same revenue and profit.

On the curve there's an optimal point where volume * price = maximum marginal profit. The Tesla VP of sales chose the best point that they thought was possible, and it turned out to not work. Now they have shifted to a less potentially profitable point.

To sum up: Tesla probably is less profitable at this price point than they planned on for the former price point.


I searched the article and the comment section for "surprise" and couldn't find anything. What makes you think anyone was surprised by this?


If you search the headline you'll find the word "expected".


I'm curious to know what their numbers would be if elon didn't completely unmask during his reign of twitter.


The guy is both a genius (Tesla and SpaceX are amazing companies) and an idiot (antagonizing the liberal audience, that is Tesla's main customer and his own main source of wealth).


I'm halfway through Walter Issacson's bio on him and I don't get the impression he cares about liberals. He seems to view his companies as something closer to an e/acc vision of saving the world through better technology.


or a genius by getting more conservatives to buy electric vehicles.


The majority of the conservatives have long ago made their mind that global warming is a conspiracy and EV buyers are liberal idiots - don't think there's anything Elon can do to change their mind. Those are the type of people who'd never admit there were wrong.


"Not admitting they are wrong" is not unique to them, happens to every extreme equally.


I always thought I'd buy a Tesla, and especially the Cybertruck.

But then the revelations came out about employees watching people through the cameras, sharing memes, etc. Now I'm sure the customers signed some P.O.S. T&C that has them giving permission for this hidden away in the legalese.

But still - I'd buy a dumb petrol car if there was one.


Yeah with that revelation I would never feel at ease owning a Tesla. It's so insanely creepy and inappropriate.


> a dumb petrol car if there was one

Your only realistic option for that now is to buy an old used one:

https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/6/23861047/car-user-privacy-...


Is that really true? As far as I can tell Mozilla is saying that car manufacturers typically give bad/no opt-outs or data controls (which is a very legitimate thing to highlight!)… but you can still buy new cars (at least a couple years ago when I last looked) that aren’t really equipped for gathering mass quantities of personal data. It’s not that hard to find a car that doesn’t have an always-active internet connection or internal cameras or whatnot. Buy one of those and you’re essentially in the same place as if you had bought an older car - the manufacturer gets no data unless you physically bring them the car, and even then what they can realistically get is pretty limited.


Yes. You would be the dumb one if you thought any complicated piece of machine/software like the cars produced today is not totally tracking you. Dumb cars aren't being manufactured anymore. They are being sold still, hence used.


You don't have Dacia available in the US?

I know that small cars like C3 are too small for the average US consumer and probably won't be available there, but i'm pretty sure most new Dacia models still don't have screen and while the sandero is a bit small the Duster is a SUV and thus should be enough (my childhood friend is a car mechanic and keep trying to sell me Dacia saying they're the easiest to repair, so I'm adding that here, although I like the C3)


Reverse cameras are mandatory in the US so they will have to have a screen.


I submitted one of the early $100 Cybertruck deposits, but at this point there's no way I'm following through on it. If Musk goes off his meds and comes out as a full-fledged Nazi or something similar, or even gives the appearance of doing so, then my investment will be largely hosed. And my conscience won't be doing so great, either.

The moral risk isn't worth it; there are (and will be) other EVs in the same class.


Having read his recent - very good - biography, I have decidedly mixed feelings about the man.

On the one hand, he's so right about many things in life. Most restrictions and limitations are just bullshit that you can ignore. If you want change, you've got to simply do it.

But on the other hand, he thinks we're in a simulation and the other people aren't real.


I thought the deposits were refundable?


They are.


I’m envisioning the car Elon is in that is “self-driving” is actually being steered remotely by some director scared to death of losing his job or killing his boss.

Not saying it’s not self-driving. That’s just what came to mind.


I mean it tried to run a red light on a livestream, so if they faked it they either did a terrible job or deliberately added a life threatening mistake.


latency on controls would be a real killer. I suppose you could stuff the director in the frunk, a la Mechanical Turk, to solve that problem.




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