I think that depends on what "it" refers to. If I claim that "it" is the end of the world, and that it will happen no later than 2024, I suspect that most scientifically minded folks would have no problem considering my claim as having a low probability of coming true.
First of all because so many predictions of the end of the world have been made and we tend to have a hunch about the kind of person who makes them. Which is stereotyping, sure, but at least it's a heuristic, not a straight-up abandonment of evidence-based thinking.
I agree there's uncertainty about the future of AI development, but it's true that we have no idea how to create AI, right now, so the uncertainty is about whether it will happen, not whether it won't. If that makes sense.
First of all because so many predictions of the end of the world have been made and we tend to have a hunch about the kind of person who makes them. Which is stereotyping, sure, but at least it's a heuristic, not a straight-up abandonment of evidence-based thinking.
I agree there's uncertainty about the future of AI development, but it's true that we have no idea how to create AI, right now, so the uncertainty is about whether it will happen, not whether it won't. If that makes sense.