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>This entire piece is based on one massive, unsupported assertion, which is that LLM progress will cease.

Sounds like a pretty good guesstimation. Well, not cease, just fizzle out.




It hasn't even begun to get good, we only got yesterday decent local code generation models, we haven't even begun on the fine tuning and tooling for using them.


When the "fine tuning" and focus on tooling begins, it usually means the "free" massive improvements have tapered off.


If it's anything like Stable Diffusion, it's actually where it becomes terrifyingly good at a specific thing.

Like putting a field of artists out of a job, or copying a style so good that you can complete a persons piece before they do on a livestream.

We're using a massive mush of the internet model which is taxed at 50% for alignment. That's going to be very dumb in the long run.


>Like putting a field of artists out of a job,

To be frank, between stock art and photos, pre-AI template based tools, and the massive oversupply of graphic design and photography work, the field was already massively redudant and kind of out of a job to begin with...


I was thinking of people who... well, take commissions to make lewd images of various themes (e.g. furry stuff) or new specific characters or such... not my cup of tea but i know from researching what is possible that you only need a few images of new season anime girl blue hair edition #9237191 from the Japanese sites to do a lora and be able to make mostly anything you want when it's done on the booru models. And you can pose people with controlnet i think. that's also how those super cool QR code images are made.

Those guys apparently used to make pretty good cash from twitter, usually using pen names so they wouldn't' be associated with their regular work

The scary bit here is you can also "clone" a person to make any image you want of them. Obviously there's a lot of problems coming from that in the future, but also neat applications, e.g. some guy made selfie pictures of himself in the past with this for internet dating.


This is totally wrong. Fine-tuning techniques were a prerequisite for turning academically impressive but boring and useless models into useful, compelling user products like ChatGPT. Fine-tuning complements fundamental model improvements -- it doesn't substitute for them.




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