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I don't think this is quite the same argument. I agree with funding the future.

But in this case the 'experts' seem to be putting all the funding toward fusion, which is likely decades away, if at all, and almost not at all toward new fission, which could be viable this decade.




Except, it cannot.

No new nuke design begun today could produce any power before 2035. The money spent building it, spent on renewables instead, would produce immediately, displace CO2 immediately, and produce more.


Which currently-deployable renewables work at night, when there's no wind, and can produce enough for our base load needs?

Small modular reactors could well be operating before the end of the decade, with government assistance, esp. regarding permitting.

But that's beside the point, and your argument is exactly that criticized above - ie we should spend today on current tech rather than research for tomorrow. Renewables are now essentially 'baked', and from the government pov it's just a matter of tweaking regulations etc to encourage further commercial rollout.

But we should also be researching for the future, and new nuclear needs help to actually develop the technology to commercial viability, along with say, deep geothermal. In comparison fusion is pie-in-the-sky, and doesn't warrant it's outsized funding - some funding (for the science), yes.


Anything that depends on converting heat will be more expensive than renewables + storage. So, nukes, howsoever clever, have no place.

Please do not pretend not to have heard of storage. It fools no one, but makes you look foolish.


lol, go and do some calculations, and come back and tell us how many batteries we'll need to cover base load during a couple of weeks of calm, dark-skies snow or rain.

I agree we should be investing in storage technologies too, just not to the exclusion of other options.


People have done the calculations on how much a 100% renewable energy economy would cost.

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9837910

> Even former critics must admit that adding e-fuels through PtX makes 100% RE possible at costs similar to fossil fuels. These critics are still questioning whether 100% RE is the cheapest solution but no longer claim it would be unfeasible or prohibitively expensive.


US residences currently use ~1kW per household. This means that current car-battery sized storage (~100kwh) would already last almost a week.

Note that other western industrialized nations are significantly less wasteful with residential electricity; the same storage would last the average german household already over 2 weeks for example. Part of the difference might be explained by air conditioning-- but this conveniently requires very little storage anyway.


If you don't go anywhere. And then there are the shops, factories, offices, datacenters, ...


> US residences currently use ~1kW per household

That sentence doesn't make a lot of sense to me.


Residential electricity use is around 10000 kWh per household per year (10000kWh/year / 365days/year / 24hours/day <=> ~1kW).

Meaning that on average, each household requires ~1kW of electricity.


You made a categorical statement, yet provided no reasonable argument to back it up, so please don't be upset if I'm inclined to not enthusiastically adopt your position.

I've spent much of my life listening to what people say various things can't be done. And then either seeing people do what was "impossible" or, in a few cases, participating in doing what other people said couldn't be done. It is the same kind of mental pitfall that magicians exploit: the audience fail to imagine the amount of effort that can be brought to bear and hence make assumptions about what is possible within a scope that wasn't as limited as they thought.

It doesn't happen often, but it happens often enough that I'm disinclined to dismiss possibilities before they have been properly explored.

I'm not saying fission can be accelerated to, say, a sub decade path to realization. I'm saying that categorically stating this timetable can't be accelerated is a bit premature before anyone has made a serious attempt.

So what do I mean by "serious attempt"?

If you look at investment in fission over the past decade, in my book that qualifies as the world not having made a serious attempt. The level of investment needs to be perhaps on the order of 2-3 magnitudes higher for it to be a "serious attempt". And it doesn't have to be a null sum game in the sense that it would all have to come from reallocating investments from other energy sectors - it could be that we allocate more resources to the energy sector.


We have many decades' experience with fission projects.

The most reliable prediction, historically, has been that they were lying about costs. No fission project has ever been gone forward without massive public subsidy. There are no projects in progress now or proposed that do not rely on massive subsidies. These go back to the first "too cheap to meter" claims.


We have decades more experience with electrical cars. And for over 100 years, electrical cars were a curiosity. For at least half of the time we've had nuclear power we've also had people saying that electrical won't have a chance at displacing ICU cars. "Experts" being far more adamant than laypeople because they "know" it isn't going to happen.

And yet, this appears to be happening.

The thing is, arguing that "X can't happen because X hasn't happened before" isn't a proper argument because everything around you has spent more time not happening than happening.

A compelling argument is one that argues how X can't happen for reasons we can know. For instance if we bang up against hard limits imposed by natural law that we just can't get around.


There is no record of electrical car promoters systematically lying about their costs.

Electric cars were not, in fact, a practical prospect until lithium battery technology improved radically. It was not the prospect of electric cars that drove the improvement. It was cell phones. As soon as the batteries got good enough, practical electric cars started to be offered, cash on the barrelhead, what you see is what you get.

Nuke experience resembles this in exactly zero details. It is frankly weird you thought otherwise.




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