Coinbase isn't new to the four year crypto cycle set by bitcoin halvings, they shouldn't have hired the people in the first place in the bear year. Rescinding job offers is a really bad look.
I don't see what the Bitcoin halvening has anything to do with this. The halvenings have been known from the very beginning and are thus priced in. The downturn we're seeing now is caused by market volatility, the exact opposite of a guaranteed halvening that we already knew was coming a decade ago.
N=3 is an absurd sample size to base hiring or investment decisions on, especially considering that each halving will have a smaller effect than the previous.
An aside, I like how crypto borrows terminology from real financial instruments. Like "cycles" when the industry as we know it has existed for maybe 10 years. I've even heard "fundamentals" thrown around. There's no earnings or assets! How are there fundamentals?? Aside over.
> For BTC, fundamentals are absolute scarcity combined with buy-in/popularity
This is literally the opposite of the meaning of fundamentals. Absolute scarcity is meaningless; in classical economics, everything is scarce. And popularity are animal spirits.
Well, words can have different meanings in different contexts. This IS what fundamentals means in the world of crypto.
You don't decide on the value of a scarce asset, the owners of the asset do. If you personally believe the nominal value of a scarce asset like BTC is meaningless and thus zero, short it.
> words can have different meanings in different contexts
I agree. It's just convenient that fundamentals, by this definition, always equals the market price. At which point one asks why there are two words other than for misdirection.
For businesses it's important to understand earnings and assets because those put a floor on the price of the business: they set a price level at which you are very likely to see demand for taking over the business. At the end of the day, though, when you study fundamentals you are making guesses at supply and demand.
The price of a Bitcoin depends on how many people are trying to use it for remittances and how easily those people can acquire Bitcoin and how long recipients hold before selling. Demand also depends on the macro environment and it's historic correlation with other markets. Supply depends on the issuance rate and energy prices (higher prices will force miners to sell more to pay for their operations). Many other factors are at play; by predicting them you can make guesses as to future supply and demand and future bitcoin prices.
How is there scarcity in Bitcoin when 1, 1000, or 10⁷ Satoshi can all serve the purpose of sending one dollar overseas? I have never understood how supply and demand can work for currencies.
Random BTC fluctuations probably don't make too much of a difference, but as of their Q4 '21 report 86% of their trading volume is actually from outside Bitcoin. Those have all taken a massive hit in recent months, and I can't expect that is good news for Coinbase.
