Well said, and pretty reasonable numbers over all.
The one point I'd add some clarification to is your .0001% chance of the vaccine having worse short term health effects. It's not that the number is wrong, exactly, it's that it's an average. It's contingent on a host of factors, but once you learn how rare side effects are, it's tempting to rhetorically bludgeon people with concerns over the head with this, even though in some cases they don't deserve it.
To give the most obvious example [1]:
> Some advisers were concerned that young and healthy Americans who don’t need a booster might choose to get one anyway. Side effects are uncommon, but in younger Americans they may outweigh the potential benefits of booster doses, the scientists said.
> “Those that are not at high risk should really be thoughtful about getting that dose,” said Dr. Helen Talbot, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University.
That's pretty strong language suggesting that if you are (1) young, (2) healthy, (3) already vaccinated, the risks might outweigh the benefits of getting vaccinated again (getting a third shot). That's extremely limited, of course, but it's important not to neglect the striking degree to which contingent facts can modulate the cost / benefit analysis.
The one point I'd add some clarification to is your .0001% chance of the vaccine having worse short term health effects. It's not that the number is wrong, exactly, it's that it's an average. It's contingent on a host of factors, but once you learn how rare side effects are, it's tempting to rhetorically bludgeon people with concerns over the head with this, even though in some cases they don't deserve it.
To give the most obvious example [1]:
> Some advisers were concerned that young and healthy Americans who don’t need a booster might choose to get one anyway. Side effects are uncommon, but in younger Americans they may outweigh the potential benefits of booster doses, the scientists said.
> “Those that are not at high risk should really be thoughtful about getting that dose,” said Dr. Helen Talbot, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University.
That's pretty strong language suggesting that if you are (1) young, (2) healthy, (3) already vaccinated, the risks might outweigh the benefits of getting vaccinated again (getting a third shot). That's extremely limited, of course, but it's important not to neglect the striking degree to which contingent facts can modulate the cost / benefit analysis.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/21/health/covid-vaccine-boos...