The outcomes are pretty clear already, 10 times more official deaths globally compared to a bad flu. And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.
> And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.
Or it could be overcounted by a sizable chunk too. Nobody really knows the actual count and we probably won't until the dust settles and cooler heads prevail. The only thing we can do at this point is take the numbers we have at face value.
It would be very surprising if death counts were overcounted by a lot, because excess mortality rates have spiked massively since COVID-19 hit the scene, and in general are higher than the COVID-19 reported death rates.
So, for it to be overcounted, you would need to have an explanation for the reason that not just the recent excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19 have jumped so much, but that the 'real' causes of death have overshot and bit into the COVID numbers.
> And we know the official death counts is under-counted by a 4x-10x factor.
Not even California undercounted that much and they are among the worst under counters in the western world, if we compare Covid deaths to excess mortality. Death undercounts are closer to 30% at worst.
If I remember correctly, that number is true of the US. Globally speaking, The Economist has it pegged at 3.9x. A far cry from 10x, but also a far cry from an undercount of 30%.
> Taken together, the researchers found that excess deaths were estimated to be in the range of 3.4 million to 4.7 million - about 10 times higher than India's official Covid-19 death toll.
