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Alabama Had More Deaths Than Births in 2020 (npr.org)
57 points by colinprince on Sept 22, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 64 comments



Why are they singling out Alabama to try and fit their narrative? Several US States [1] are in a similar position.

[1] https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/snapshot/2020-deaths-exce...


Because people will click on articles where the headline validates their pre-existing beliefs.


From the headline ("A Grim First For The State"), Alabama is highlighted because it's the first time this has happened in that state. Several states in that map also had births exceed deaths in 2019.


Sure. Still seems awfully manufactured even for someone who enjoys NPR. It's about what's not covered as much as what is covered.


Seems it got covered just because the state's health officer said mentioned it in a health briefing. The nationwide analysis was done months ago.


The good citizens of Alabama pay their top health officials to single out Alabama for their attention.


Several = 25


Yeah, the deaths are high, but the story here is "deaths > births"... and you only get that story when births are pretty low.

That ain't gonna do away once covid-19 leaves the cause-of-death tables.


It would be good to a couple years of birth rate and death rate. Maybe it’s just a drop in baby-making. Or maybe not. Maybe births are up since last year too.


I wonder if it’s just deaths or if there’s a decline in births as well. I could see a lot of families put off having kids for fear of packed hospitals or other restrictions.


Covid death rate is 1 for every 477 people (US population / US covid deaths)... given that those deaths are not being distributed equally it's not surprising


Birth rate had a significant fall off, but the death rate is high, even if you substitute in previous years birth rates, deaths would still be more than births.


Share a link for 2020? I can find 2019 here [https://www.alabamapublichealth.gov/healthstats/assets/atagl...] showing: Live Births 58,615 Deaths 54,109

2020 deaths totalling 64,714 is way up, would shrink the state in 2019 (pre-pandemic) too.

If Covid isn’t dangerous, or is just a hoax, an explanation for the extra 10,000 or so deaths would be really useful.


the 2020 stats were in the article.


What about net migration? It would be easy for a state that received a lot of retirees to grow every year despite more deaths than births.


That sort of surprises me. On worldometers, Alabama's per capita death rate isn't that unusual. It's ranked 5th and roughly on par with, e.g. Massachusetts. And that's now counting Delta variant and its likely higher percentage unvaccinated population; I don't think I remember it being so high in 2020.

So what's the story? Higher death rate than other states excluding covid? Very low birth rate? It's also the case for other states and just not mentioned here?


Alabama is fifth highest in deaths per million by state, and I'd assume that this is simply an issue of birth rates. Combine that with a lot of poor drug addicts, and you have your answer.


Without covid the population change from births and deaths would’ve stayed nearly flat in 2020. Covid added 8-10k deaths (I couldn’t find a source to easily calculate this, sorry.)

Alabama isn’t alone, though; 25 states had the same problem last year. Here’s a map. https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/snapshot/2020-deaths-exce...


> Alabama isn’t alone, though; 25 states had the same problem last year.

Very interesting. I wonder if the reason this narrative about Alabama catches so many eyes is because it plays into negative biases about Alabama, and other similar southern US states.


[flagged]


Hacker News has a real problem when it comes to trying to understand people with different backgrounds, mindsets, and values.


In this instance, I don't think it's a problem specific to the HN community.


For some, "Give me Liberty or give me Death!" is simply an anachronistic saying. For others, it's an important motto.


This is fine if the person saying it is the only one involved. Unfortunately, there are many in that community - for example children not yet of age - who have absolutely no say in the matter. Thus it's incumbent on people like us to at least try to help them. QED.


Children aren't really victims of Covid aside from their parents being affected maybe and the restriction put on them.


If Covid impacted the general population the same way it did kids, this would be over by now. We know who the vulnerable people are, and almost all of them are over 50. I don't think that's the best way to approach the issue.

Fundamental freedoms can be dangerous. This is something that's hard to admit for people who've never experienced the more real side of life, the people who haven't stared death in the eye before.

Patrick Henry was not the only person involved when he made his declaration. Many people died, due in part to his words. Life is nasty, hard, and has a 100% mortality rate.

Let me put it this way: would becoming a full police state be worth it to you, if it eliminated Covid? No? Where's the line?


"...and almost all of them are over 50."

Not true with delta, sorry!


Sure, Delta is more transmissible, but it's not more deadly, as far as any metrics have been able to tell.


The story I've heard is Delta isn't any more deadly to the over 50 crowd, but it's definitely more deadly to the under 50 crowd. I understand there's been a surge of younger adults going to the hospitals and ICUs and young children are filling up the children's hospitals. I suspect the younger people respond better to treatment, but I don't have any stats to reinforce that suspicion. Even so, they're filling hospitals and there have already been cases where people having non-Covid related issues have died while trying to find a hospital able to admit them. It's a mess.


That story isn't backed up by any numbers I've seen.


> Life is nasty, hard, and has a 100% mortality rate.

The same is true of rabies. Say what you actually mean.


I'm saying what I mean. Death happens. Doing everything possible to stop death infringes on basic human rights. Where's the line?


I have, and very clearly at that.


As does the entire USA.

I couldn't say about the rest of the world.


I keep thinking, even though I myself have gotten vaccinated against COVID-19, and I wish that as many people as possible get the vaccine too so we can have a chance of herd immunity, that in a way maybe a small small amount of people not getting vaccinated is good.

I think of this because I think, even though I trust the vaccine to be safe, what if there are unknown side-effects. In that way it is good that some people don’t get vaccinated. So that humanity still has some people that don’t get those side effects.

So in a way, it would be like a natural way for the human race as a whole, to continue existing, by some people not getting vaccinated and possibly being the ones that made the right choice after all.

Does that make sense? I think it does. Even though I believe in the vaccine. But I am talking about the bigger picture of the humanity as a whole over the whole course of its history. That it’s like a strategy that helps us survive by having us believe different things and therefore acting differently on the same information. And that sometimes one group of people is right, and usually it’s the majority group. But that this helps us survive those times when the minority is actually right.


I think you're going to get some shit, but I agree. Lock-step action is almost never the smartest solution, even if it may be the right one.


I have already but I'm used to it. As I said in my reply, what matters most is concern for those who'll be infected next and those who are already dying.

If awkward language has to be used to rectify things/save lives then so be it (it may as well be me as anyone else). I have difficulty understanding why this is not the correct and proper thing to do. What's so wrong with stating the obvious truth?

It seems to me that these days sensibilities and what people think are more important than saving lives. If this is in fact so, then heaven help us.


Not everybody is able to get the vaccine. That's why the vaccination goal isn't 100% of the population, it's 100% of the eligible population. Even that can't be achieved - as it's never been achieved with any other vaccine. That's all known and was anticipated. What wasn't anticipated was how low the vaccination rate would be and the leading indicator of whether the vaccination rate is high or low in a particular area is whether the majority of the voters are registered as Republicans or Democrats. No one saw that coming, yet here we are.


In BC where I live we have 85% of people vaccinated. We are back in lockdown with mask mandates and vaccine passports.

They are still going on about the unvaccinated, there’s no such thing as herd immunity in the politics of COVID lockdowns.


Probably because those 15% of people are driving 50% or more of the spread. One of the reasons Delta is such a big deal is that it raised the herd immunity threshold from around 70% to around 95% (of 2 dose MRNA based, J&J wouldn't be strong enough to provide herd immunity if 100% of people had it).


I’m sure they are… however…

Sweden has 65% vaccinated and no mask mandates or passports, or mandatory vaccines. It’s purely a political decision and nothing to do with this or that rate.

Previously BC had 1/10th of the infections no one vaccinated and we were open for business.


Life is deadly, it eventually kills you and everyone around you whether you like it or not#.

Life's a risk from well before you were born until the day you die. Taking risks everyday is what life's all about. That said, when transversing life's obstacles it's incumbent on you to do your best to not trample on others and thus increase their risks. And sometimes that means taking additional risks yourself as it's the right and proper thing to do as it minimize the risks for others - and here that additional risk is pretty insignificant - that of bring vaccinated.

I'd contend that those who aren't prepared to take that risk are acting selfishly. If not, then they're spooked or damn scared.

Why some people in the US, where there's access to good eduation, verifiably accurate information, etc., and yet they still refuse to accept evidence and logical argument is one of the big conundrums of our time. Still, even with all these obstacles in hand it's our duty to help them, difficult as that may be.

# That's a raw point at the moment for me as a close friend of some decades died a few days ago (no, it wasn't COVID).


Even though we talk about "the" vaccine, there isn't only one; there are half a dozen different vaccines being administered world-wide, using different methods of production. We're talking about all these independently-developed vaccines failing catastrophically in a way no other vaccine has ever failed before -- reactions after two weeks are incredibly rare. We're thousands of times more likely to be wiped out by a meteor.


Alternatively, Alex Jones could be right, and they're sophisticated tools to sterilize the vast majority of people.

This is obviously ridiculous, but it's why you should always have a control group.


Nope. The world didn't keep a control group for smallpox, even in the most distant villages. We simply eradicated it.


Smallpox wasn't eradicated by the vaccine. It wore itself out, and the (incredibly simple) vaccine helped a bit.


Veritably factual evidence please. Now, ASAP.

With a claim of that magnitude you shouldn't need to look far, as you'd be able to spot the evidence from afar no matter what direction you looked.


Where's the evidence? Show me!

BTW, everyone who I know including myself haven't had the slightest of problems.


Right. There's very little in common between, let's say, the Moderna and Sputnik vaccines. The effects appear to be similar but the underlying technology is completely different.


I keep thinking, even though I myself have gotten vaccinated against COVID-19, and I wish that as many people as possible get the vaccine to so we can have a chance of herd immunity, that in a way maybe a small small amount of people not getting vaccinated is good.

Imagine reading that sentence in a newspaper op-ed in 1956 but with the word "polio" in place of "COVID-19".


Eh, do you think I could make some statement of yours sound weird if I were to substitute "ebola" for some other word you used? Is this useful?


True, but that has no bearing on facts. And I did use the word 'perhaps'.

The tragedy is people are dying there more than many other places in the US, so that begs the question as to why. Covering the issues up with sweet words or ignoring them doesn't help the next lot who'll become infected and those who are seriously ill and about to die.


What are facts, exactly?


Scientific evidence, in this case that the vaccines are statistically effective and safe.


It's sad for the people that continue to believe the Vax'd politicians and Fox news / Other source pundits also Vax'd that there is a conspiracy. Sadly we won't see mass murder charges against said vax'd pundits. But you reap what your beliefs sew.


> But you reap what your beliefs sew.

The typical order for natural fiber clothing is actually:

1. Sow

2. Reap

3. Sew


Remember when (now) vice president Harris and all of the other channels' pundits were loudly proclaiming that they wouldn't dare take the vaccine because the wrong political party championed it, and that the FDA and CDC couldn't be trusted?

Remember when we were told by the Director of NIAID that masks wouldnt help? Or that we only needed just so many people to reach herd immunity, but that was later revealed to be an intentional lie so he could later increase the number without it sounding as scary?

Remember when the mayors of DC, LA, SF and a dozen other cities, along with the governors of several states, mandated wearing face masks, then were, on multiple occasions, caught in public settings indoors not social distancing or wearing masks?

Remember when several members of congress were caught putting on face masks for a photo, then immediately removing them again?

Remember the Emmys where none of the stars wore masks but all of the "help" had to?

You reap what you sow indeed. It is amazing that anyone trusts anyone anymore.


Do you have links to any of these?


https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-politicians-who-v...

There's a list of 14 politicians, limited to Democrats since they're the ones most often imposing the mandates. A list of republicans would be rather redundant in this case, but it is worth pointing out they are no strangers to hypocracy either, of course.


Harris never said she didn’t trust the CDC or FDA. She specifically said she didn’t trust Trump, and would take a vaccine when it was recommended by CDC and FDA.


>“If the public health professionals, if Dr. [Anthony] Fauci, if the doctors tell us that we should take it, I’ll be the first in line to take it. Absolutely,” Harris said during the live debate in Salt Lake City, when she was asked if Americans should take a vaccine, if the Trump administration were to approve one either before or after the election. “But if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it. I’m not taking it.”

That seems like a perfectly reasonable stance. If Biden was promoting some other medical treatment against the advice of the FDA, I'd be skeptical of that too.

https://news.yahoo.com/kamala-harris-says-she-wont-take-covi...


So you won't be getting a vaccine booster?

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/biden-booster-plan-...

"The Biden administration’s decisions over when to administer coronavirus vaccine boosters are triggering turmoil within the Food and Drug Administration, frustrating regulators and sparking fear that political pressures will once again override the agency’s expertise."


If my doctor and reputable public health experts disagree with the FDA (or with scientists who resigned from the FDA in protest), that could certainly be enough to overcome my skepticism. I'd have to consider it on a case-by-case basis.

What wouldn't convince me is the president's opinion on the matter.


Even if the President is interfering with the job of those same public health agencies? That was my entire point and why people were quoting the FDA.


Not all reputable public health experts work for public health agencies.




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