Edit: Yes, a bonus one for "good" luck. But, the example I gave was an oversimplified model that gets across the point that threats are always there, and a long-enough chain of unnoticeable threats is sufficient, so the "Great Filter" postulate is unnecessary. I was not claiming that "200 independent events" is literally how the universe works. It was just a rhetorical device.
Earth has been hit by about half of that since life started here. Make our experience unusual enough and the average about 10000, and you'll get a Great Filter out of asteroid impacts.
You know, when a physics Nobel Prize winner makes some statement about probabilities that the entire community recognizes as insightful, it's usually not simplistic.
Edit: Yes, a bonus one for "good" luck. But, the example I gave was an oversimplified model that gets across the point that threats are always there, and a long-enough chain of unnoticeable threats is sufficient, so the "Great Filter" postulate is unnecessary. I was not claiming that "200 independent events" is literally how the universe works. It was just a rhetorical device.