Well, multiply those by another 100, and you may be going somewhere, there are enough stars much older than the Sun on our galaxy alone to turn a 1 in a billion chance into almost certainty.
But then, good luck finding even 10 events that could possibly kill all humans with a 10% probability.
Edit: Yes, a bonus one for "good" luck. But, the example I gave was an oversimplified model that gets across the point that threats are always there, and a long-enough chain of unnoticeable threats is sufficient, so the "Great Filter" postulate is unnecessary. I was not claiming that "200 independent events" is literally how the universe works. It was just a rhetorical device.
Earth has been hit by about half of that since life started here. Make our experience unusual enough and the average about 10000, and you'll get a Great Filter out of asteroid impacts.
You know, when a physics Nobel Prize winner makes some statement about probabilities that the entire community recognizes as insightful, it's usually not simplistic.
But then, good luck finding even 10 events that could possibly kill all humans with a 10% probability.