you look at a normal distribution of returns using SPY mean return and SPY stdev as the parameters and then calculate the chance of his returns or better 6 years in a row.
There's a lot of things wrong with my calculation, but it was illustrative of how P < 0.05 in this case, no matter how you calculate it.
Null hypothesis is: he is not generating alpha given the assumption the underlying distribution of his returns are the same as SPY. How would you calculate the chance of him generating alpha using only the fact (and no other data) that he generated an annualized return of ~37% (iirc) over a six year period?
So you’ve rejected the hypothesis that his portfolio has the same distribution of returns as the SPY. Looks reasonable, because his portfolio does not track the S&P 500. Congratulations!
The QQQ (Nasdaq 100) also generates alpha without any doubt then, as does the SPUU (leveraged S&P 500).
There's a lot of things wrong with my calculation, but it was illustrative of how P < 0.05 in this case, no matter how you calculate it.