Some people would have died anyway of the existing condition they are having. An...

nroets · on March 29, 2020

Here is one calculation that estimates the Equal Value Life Year Gained as 15 years. Then, if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die, then the average person looses 27 days. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/03/27/how-ec...

This article says it's 7.8 years on average and up to 13.26 million QALYs are at stake in the US. So it's expected that life expectancy for the whole population will decline by at most 14 days due to Covid 19. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/another-covid-cost-ben...

perl4ever · on March 29, 2020

"if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die,"

Where does that figure come from?

Edit: also, I think 1 in 200 is very, very roughly 5-10 times all other infectious diseases in a normal year. So maybe that would provide perspective.

nroets · on March 30, 2020

Let me rephrase it: If governments does nothing, 1 out of 200 people will die.

This study expects 510,000 people to die in the UK (depending on the R0 value) and 2200000 in the US. That's 1 in 135. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

It will be between 1 in 200 and 1 in 100.