On: Log-log plot of new vs. total Covid-19 cases by co...

[perl4ever]

"if we do nothing to mitigate the pandemic and 1 out of 200 people die,"

Where does that figure come from?

Edit: also, I think 1 in 200 is very, very roughly 5-10 times all other infectious diseases in a normal year. So maybe that would provide perspective.

[nroets → perl4ever]

Let me rephrase it: If governments does nothing, 1 out of 200 people will die.

This study expects 510,000 people to die in the UK (depending on the R0 value) and 2200000 in the US. That's 1 in 135. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

It will be between 1 in 200 and 1 in 100.