On: Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029

[bryanlarsen]

And for the previous 40 years Intel was always about 1 year ahead of their competitors. I would never bet against Intel, that's been a losing game for far too long.

[hrktb → bryanlarsen]

AMD was already poised to eat their lunch last time, Intel had to go to illegal lengths to keep their commercial lead.

I'd expect AMD to have learned the lesson and get away with their lead this time.

[bryanlarsen → hrktb]

Intel did not lose their process lead during that period, it was a design problem; NetBurst was a bad idea.

[seanmcdirmid → hrktb]

Irrelevant. AMD doesn’t own its own fabs anymore, and I think they rely on the expertise for whoever happens to be fanning their chips, allowing them to simply choose the fab with the best process while they focus on architecture.

[undersuit → seanmcdirmid]

Maybe that's the lesson AMD learned?

[seanmcdirmid → undersuit]

No. It’s just the reality of the situation. Perhaps intel would do better to separate their fab and architecture divisions, or maybe they are already sufficiently separated internally anyways.

[ksec → bryanlarsen]

Yes, and in those years* Intel also had the largest leading edge wafer output. I.e They managed to sustain that lead because they had the volume. So what has changed? Even if Intel continue to ship 200M leading edge node to PC market they still would not compare to the GPU + AI + Mobile SoC Market in volume. Those days are gone. TSMC now has that advantage.

*It is actually closer to 30 years.