”I'll give it 10-20 years before there's a major decoupling even between the US and Europe.”
I am originally from Germany and I think the main obstacle for this decoupling will be the reluctance of Europe to take defense into their own hands. When things get tough they so far always have relied on the US. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
I still live in Germany and I can echo your concerns.
The majority of society has zero interest in doing military service, no respect for people serving in the military at best, to downright hostility at worst, as urban myths and clichés (like that the Bundeswehr is just for racist nutjobs) go largely unchallenged (it is by far and large more ethnically diverse than say most IT departments).
Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s a good thing that we aren’t a militarist country.
But the reason for us being able to afford this kind of luxury is US protection.
And thus it doesn’t matter how much some Germans are annoyed with the US, this social shunning of military service is not going anywhere.
I remember when the war in Yugoslavia went on. This was clearly a European thing but in the end it was the Americans that did the dirty work while the Europeans did a lot of talking but no action.
French people were opposed to that idiotic intervention, just like the ones in Iraq and Syria. Sarkozy was not re-elected (for this and many other reasons).
I deduce that even when a country commits atrocities in Europe European nations won’t do anything on their own. Or let’s say Russia invaded Poland they wouldn’t do anything either.
> as urban myths and clichés (like that the Bundeswehr is just for racist nutjobs
Is it really clichés when there's plenty of evidence for it? Remember that "neo-Nazi doomsday prepper group" from June [0]? Those guys turned out largely to be police and soldiers.
It's reached a point where the Bundeswehr considers discharging the soldiers who blow the whistle on the problem [1], instead of having to admit having one.
Have you ever met actual people serving in the German military? There are whole teams/cells that communicate to each other in turkish-german or russian.
The truth is, in a society like the German, where 50% of high school graduates want to go to university, it's usually just the lower classes to down-right underclass that even consider the military as a career-path.
Alas, apart from white-trash Germans it is a lot of immigrants that you'll find there.
Indeed, I’m sure it would be impossible to find 20 hours of footage of Members of the Left or the Greens saying racist things. Certainly it would be beyond the bounds of possibility to find a group of German IT professionals being incredibly racist. That could never happen. /s
> Indeed, I’m sure it would be impossible to find 20 hours of footage of Members of the Left or the Greens saying racist things
That's a whole other category than people hoarding weapons for some "day X", or members of the police equating police having to identify themselves (not by name, with a number) to citizens with Jews having to wear a yellow star [0], and dozens of other things, is just not even remotely in the same ballpark than "members of the Left" saying racist things. If one belittles the issue of Nazi networks in Germany going back to the 1940s, still murdering, with all the weird stuff happening to witnesses, all the failures to investigate -- that's orders of magnitude worse than a racist slur, to anyone who knows and cares about the actual situation.
Back to the military though, remember Horst Köhler resigning for basically quoting from the manual of the Bundeswehr? [1]
> a country of our size needs to be aware that where called for or in an emergency, military deployment, too, is necessary if we are to protect our interests such as ensuring free trade routes or preventing regional instabilities which are also certain to negatively impact our ability to safeguard trade, jobs and income.
The relevant Bundeswehr document at that time, from 2006:
> Deutschland, dessen wirtschaftlicher Wohlstand vom Zugang zu Rohstoffen, Waren und Ideen abhängt, hat ein elementares Interesse an einem friedlichen Wettbewerb der Gedanken, an einem offenen Welthandelssystem und freien Transportwegen.
which translates to
> Germany, whose economic prosperity depends on access to raw materials, goods and ideas, has a fundamental interest in a peaceful competition of ideas, an open world trade system and free transport routes.
So basically, the German president had to leave for openly stating what is official doctrine, and people pretended that it isn't. I wonder what would happen to a little grunt who saw or said the wrong things, or said too plainly what the naked emperor support crowd covers up in bloated, dishonest language.
I’m not sure what your point is. Could you clarify it for me please? On the one hand you seem to be saying that there are networks of no shit actual Nazis in positions of power in Germany and that they have some organizational continuity with post war real Nazis. This seems unlikely, if only because the Stasi would definitely have infiltrated them and exposed them at some point for a propaganda coup.
As to the Bundeswehr document and Horst Köhler that does seem insane. If German polite society makes the President reign for saying something that anodyne they might as well abolish the military and declare themselves a protectorate, whether of France or the US.
> On the one hand you seem to be saying that there are networks of no shit actual Nazis in positions of power in Germany and that they have some organizational continuity with post war real Nazis.
To this day neo-Nazis are vandalizing Holocaust memorials with slogans like "Hans Steinbrenner did nothing wrong!", the NSU [0] was murdering and bombing their way trough Germany for years, while being in close contact with the German Verfassungsschutz, who actually organized their murder weapon and has a long and nasty history of financing these kinds of networks.
The files about that particular case have either been shredded (which was freely admitted) or are now locked up for 150 years. Turns out the same VfS guy who was in contact with the NSU, was also responsible for the guy who recently went on a shooting spree in Halle.
The worst terrorist attack in post-WWII Germany? The Octoberfest bombing of 1980 [1], committed by a right-wing nutjob, they even shot cops when those dare to go after their guns [1]. We've reached a point where they are openly marching on their old Nürnberg parading grounds [2].
> This seems unlikely, if only because the Stasi would definitely have infiltrated them and exposed them at some point for a propaganda coup.
The Stasi was only a thing in the GDR when Germany was still split in two, the two halves only reunified in the 90s.
You are vastly underestimating Marcon's drive to fill the US American shaped power vacuum that emerges with a French-German filler.
Just like you are completely disregarding the possibility that Russia and Europe might end up on better terms out of sheer practicality.
Because that whole narrative about the Russian boogeyman, barely kept at bay due to US presence, is one that's mostly based on fiction, and not actual real politics.
Even Putin knows that a broke and war-torn Western Europe makes for bad customers for Russian gas, which is among the very few things still keeping the Russian economy alive.
I am originally from Germany and I think the main obstacle for this decoupling will be the reluctance of Europe to take defense into their own hands. When things get tough they so far always have relied on the US. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.