As China's military becomes closer and closer to Western standards, supply chain integration and Western business in China will dry up in response. Western companies will not want to do business with direct competition and even if they did, the US govt wouldn't let them.
If doing business in China means funneling new tech to the PLA that could result in theoretical American deaths, then we don't do business in China anymore.
A historical precedent would be the soviet union, where we wouldn't even let ball bearing be exported to Soviet block countries. You can already see this with the current chip wars.
> As China's military becomes closer and closer to Western standards, supply chain integration and Western business in China will dry up in response.
You and parent are saying different things.
The US has historically had no problem trading with and building up any economy with cash (your point).
But once that economy reaches parity with the US, if they have serious ideological / political differences, the US is quick to lock down legal trade (parent's point).
This observation (in general about the West) was the origin of the "hide our capacities and bide our time" component of Deng Xiaoping's 1990 strategy that Xi (foolishly and prematurely, imho) threw out the window.
Funny story: at the moment, Chinese are using the American market for some of their military R&D. This is particularly visible in the civilian firearm industry, where we're seeing a flood of quality Chinese optics and electronics, including stuff like IR laser designators and even night vision.
Their first products were really crappy - stereotypical "made in China" stuff - but cheap, and it carved out the niche. Then more expensive things started showing up, but they still cost 2-3x less than comparable Western offerings, at similar quality levels. Now, most of the mid-range optics segment is dominated by Chinese-manufactured electronics with American and European brands stamped on it.
And I can't help but think that every time an American gun owner buys another Holosun red dot, he actually buys two: one for himself, and one for a PLA soldier.
If that is indeed the case, I think is too late, in my opinion.
The historical precedent doesn't account for the fact that Russia and China are currently members of the WTO and that they have their own group named BRICS.
But I applaud your initiative on thinking on the issue and the Logic of your thinking is Good, and this is the most important.
A bit of information less then the needed, in this case, doesn't mean the Logic was not good. So, the understanding can be good.
And something important I have to say, I think, in my opinion, that is a naive misconception to count non-nuclear non-strategical weaponry in any reasoning, those are just toys to play, to show to the other kids and make poor kids envy, they are not weapons, in the Real Game of the Globe. Count only the ICBC in your logic, and you can have a better understanding.
Non-nuclear, non-strategic weaponry been important in every war fought since 1945.
While not between major powers, these wars have changed world affairs.
PS: You might not intend the way your comments come off. Speaking about another's logic for three paragraphs -- seems more negatively patronizing than anything else.
Russia has shown to improve the skills of mounting 24 nuclear fusion bombs x 30 mach speed - "snow flakes" On Proton[1] derived Rockets, (those to took the turtles to the moon and will take the turtles to Mars,( maybe.) )
attacking capabilities are believed to have evolved in the last 15 years.
And the Proton are the oldest of their rockets, my friend, and is still up and ready in this very moment....
> China is on the rise but needs US technology and innovation (currently).
China never needed, nor used it. USA is not innovating, nor creating new technology, that's a myth, unless you call somebody creating a 1000th clone of Facebook a "technology."
USA sat on the back of engineering and programming sweatshops in the third world for 3 decades already.
It requires one to have a special level of insecurity, to go so far hellbent on claiming their creativity as to print it in bold letters that "we surely did not buy this off the shelf from OEM in China."
The rich elites in USA are the ones with the strongest "pain:" no Chinese parent in his nightmare will imagine spending 100K+ on dumb "creativity" or "leadership" classes for his child, but in the West... you know the story.
If doing business in China means funneling new tech to the PLA that could result in theoretical American deaths, then we don't do business in China anymore.
A historical precedent would be the soviet union, where we wouldn't even let ball bearing be exported to Soviet block countries. You can already see this with the current chip wars.