You are wrong. Unfortunately I know how opaque it is and can not use another word, which I would prefer, to describe the process. I can not, will not, must not give more information to protect myself and others.
Trust me, the mathematical chance of approximately 10% has nothing to do with your real chances which could be much lower, or much higher.
Trust me, the mathematical chance of approximately 10% has nothing to do with your real chances which could be much lower, or much higher.