There are many lovely reasons to apply (or ignore) SBIRs: http://seliger.com/Should-your-startup-seek-Small-Business-I..., but the review process is not particularly opaque. It is true that most agencies receive far more applications than there are awards available, so even "fundable" applications may not be funded.
You are wrong. Unfortunately I know how opaque it is and can not use another word, which I would prefer, to describe the process. I can not, will not, must not give more information to protect myself and others.
Trust me, the mathematical chance of approximately 10% has nothing to do with your real chances which could be much lower, or much higher.
