The author frames the question as to whether iPad native apps or web apps will win, but obviously the much bigger question is: how many people will buy iPads?
The iPhone app rush is predicated on the enormous popularity of the iPhone itself, which was already a given when the App Store was introduced. With the iPad, it's a very open question whether a gap in the market exists for a form factor between a phone and a laptop -- and whether it is better than the current contender for that space, Netbooks.
Right, especially since it's looking like a large part of the iPad's market will be technophobes who don't want to deal with the "complex" features of normal computers. How many apps are those users actually going to buy, as opposed to just using it for web browsing and email?
Games, games, and more games. Take advantage of the multitouch features.
As a side note, I'm developing a pretty awesome concept for a game in time for the iPad release, and could sure use some artists to partner with... Give me a shout if you are interested.
I also think there's an opportunity for 'board' games: the iPad can be positioned on a table for viewing and operation by multiple players simultaneously, moreso than previous devices.
Yep I definitely have considered that as well. Especially the possibility of RTS board games of some sort, as opposed to turn-based. I'm sure the Parker Bros would be well advised to make a Monopoly app.
I've got to admit, the board game idea for the ipad is pretty cool. In general, though, I'm not convinced I see the game market for the ipad being as large as it is on the iphone. A phone is in your pocket when you're on the bus, in the waiting room, or in the bathroom (you know you do it). These are perfect opportunities to pull out the device and play a game for a few minutes. I don't see people having as quick of access to the ipad or planning to bring it somewhere just to game on.
That being said, I'm guessing we can assume that the next flash sdk's ability to build for iPhone will extend to the iPad, in which case the games floodgates are going to open regardless.
1. Web apps are an order of magnitude easier to develop than iPad apps.
I'm not sure I agree with that. Applications with limited UI are easier as webapps if you forget all the other browsers you might want to be compatible with. Native apps live in a wonderfully deterministic world, albeit with a target market of one to three-ish devices.
Personally I'm looking forward to counting how many "flashlight" applications there are on release day! Currently there 240 apps that return for "flashlight", almost all of which are competing for the ever lucrative I want more light than my wallpaper lets through market.
Yeah i think I agree with you. Web apps require knowledge of a ton of software layers, not least of which is the web server/client architecture and protocols. To the extent that native apps are also communicating with remote services there is probably not much difference, but many native apps are built to stand alone which, in my opinion, makes them an order of magnitude easier to develop.
I think the opportunity of the iPad for developers is to offer feature rich desktop quality applications. Judging from the iWork demo, and the other built-in applications, the iPad hardware & SDK is advanced enough to create some serious applications. As a result I think there won't be the same race to the bottom we saw with iPhone apps. There will be a bigger market for $20-$50 applications here.
That was my thought as well. A bigger screen means more complex applications and potentially a bigger price tag. I will be interested to see how much iWork costs. I think Apple will set the trend with their own application pricing.
$10 for an app is a lot better than the $1-3 iPhone apps typically go for, and not too far from the $20-30 that desktop apps tend to go for. I think that Apple's trying to lead by example with their iWork pricing. Certainly some apps will undercut that, but I think the truly innovative apps that really do things that can't be done with an iPhone and would be inconvenient on a desktop will be able to command a $10 price tag.
My thinking is that the Apple apps will represent the "top tier" pricing, as they do in the desktop world. iWork on the desktop is 79$, pretty high up their compared to most indie apps. Also, I believe the iWork apps represent exactly this kind of "high value" application: the videos look pretty complex and flashy. Thus by selling the iPad version for less than half that, it is my belief that indie devs will take a cue to sell for lower.
I was ready to buy one for my girlfriend - I kind of promised her one already before it was presented. She wasn't all that keen on a new "computer" for her, and my selling pitch for iPad to her was "you can run your farm on farmville on it" ... do I need to continue?
and as I understood iPad doesn't have Flash support, right? So when I told her that, she said (was watching screens over my shoulder) "but he showed facebook" - referring to the facebook app. And this, my friends, is your typical user.
At least she got an "ugly duckling" farmville mug. I'd tell you I bought myself one too, but then I'd lose my street cred - so I wont tell you.
I've just thought of the first app I'll make for the iPad. It will be a version of top. Seeing as the thing only runs one process at a time, it should practically be a one-liner.
Seeing as you've apparently not bothered to learn anything about how the existing iPhone OS works, you might be surprised at the results you'd see from such an application.
I'm sure there will be money in it... but a tablet is in no way anywhere close to the 'necessity' that a phone is.
Everyone has a phone, and most people use their phone for a good majority of the day. It's easy for anyone from a teen to a grandparent justify buying an iPhone. I don't see this tablet having nearly as much of a market share... phones are simply much more a part of our lives (and central to even our style and personality) than a tablet.
I'd say it may pay to develop a game which works really well with the iPad size. May cash in on the initial rush when everyone gets one and wants a good app to see the advantages of the bigger screen.
it's not just the development environment app writers care about, but also the app store infrastructure: an easy way to charge for your application and in-app content, availability of user reviews and ratings and possibly free advertising are all things that a bigger screen won't offer for webapps.
iPhone is a bigger market than iPad, and iPhone apps will work on iPads.
I'm sure that most of the #100 iPhone apps will make a special iPad-enhanced version, but that's not going to be a killer feature.
I guess some apps can only ever work on an iPad (due to size / CPU / RAM) constraints, but those will be a niche.
I'd just say that the iPad is a larger incentive to target the iPhone. Some apps will be a big deal on the tablet, but mostly they will be better targeting the iPhone first.
This all comes down to where the developer can make the most money, a native app or a web app.
Someone also mentioned the infrastructure and resources needed to support a web app to support thousands/millions of users. as opposed to basically nothing for a native app.
Once again the main problem with iPhone OS web apps is that they can't take advantage of many of the truly unique features of Apple products: multi touch, motion sensors, etc.
If you want to make something truly interesting you have to actually write an native app.
The iPhone app rush is predicated on the enormous popularity of the iPhone itself, which was already a given when the App Store was introduced. With the iPad, it's a very open question whether a gap in the market exists for a form factor between a phone and a laptop -- and whether it is better than the current contender for that space, Netbooks.