No. Who is the iPad for? I don't understand the target market. People whose computing needs are basic enough that this can serve as a primary computer?
It plays video, and runs apps, and syncs with iTunes, but so does my iPhone and so does my macbook. It's too big to fit in your pocket, so you need a bag for it, but why not just put my macbook in the bag?
I'm a power user and I demand a lot from my computers. That's why I jailbroke my iPhone; it just doesn't do enough out of the box. The iPad, like the iPhone, is a closed, sandboxed platform.
I've been thinking about this for awhile. I think the target is people who use a laptop for web browsing and email most of the time. Rarely they'll need to use it to create a document or presentation. If you ask them what web browser they use - they probably don't know or care. If you ask them what email client they use - they look back at you with confusion. In almost all circumstances these users don't need a proper laptop. A keyboard dock and iPad works just as well.
My parents fit perfectly into this segment of users. They use their computers often and are content as long as everything works. They care about ease of use and consistency across applications. Apple, with their closed system, can provide that.
The ironic part from my observations is if a website doesn't work they blame the website. Apple won't be blamed by users for not allowing flash. We saw the same thing with Microsoft and IE6.
I think power users and developers will have another few years before they are happy with any Apple tablet offerings. For me I'd need a higher res screen and OS X. Or equivalent improvements to allow development. I think developers were hoping for such an improvement with iPad v1 - but alas we'll have to wait.
Yes, but will that segment shell out that much money for it - $630 is a lot for Mom to shell out for something to surf websites on - especially when they already have a computer in the house that surfs the web just fine.
I don't think you'll see real adoption until the price comes down a lot (say $300 or less) and I doubt Apple will do that, although others might.
In the end I suspect that it'll be a pretty niche market for the people who already buy everything Apple.
Now, I could be wrong and I'm sure Apple did at least some homework on it's marketability, but still, seems this way to me.
It is half the price of the cheapest MacBook. The target audience is clearly netbook buyers. People who just want to do a handful of focused tasks. Let's not forget this is going to be an amazing gaming platform. Can you game on a $299 netbook? No because PC games are largely written for desktops with modern powerful GPUs. This device has some real advantages to anyone who has a checklist of 5 or 6 things they want to do with a small portable device.
Throwing an iPad in and out of your bag to "just check" something is going to be a different kettle of fish to getting out a notebook, opening it up, waiting for HD to whir up, loading Safari/whatever, blah blah.
The iPad will be the sort of device you can leave lying around, in your bag, etc, and then just refer to at will. I can read it easily in bed without scalding my legs or hearing a fan going at a gazillion RPM, I can read it easily at a coffee shop without looking like an idiot, I can draw on it and take full sized notes wherever I go.
It's not just for replicating notebook stuff; it's for new stuff too.
The iPad replaces a computer for most people, and does a lot more by being so portable and simple to use. Seriously, get one of these a keyboard dock and you're good to go.
For developers and other content creators we still need the power of a notebook. If we have a smart phone then this isn't as compelling, but for most "normal" people who consume content this is huge. Make no mistake this is a game changer.
I was kind of interested in the keyboard dock at first glance. Here's a way to turn an iPad into a simple computer that my kid can use for school tasks or email without trashing my desktop computer setup.
But on second glance: how do you drive the UI from the keyboard? Can you use a mouse? Are you going to have to lift your arms and gesture all over the place to open a file, change apps, etc?
If they have an answer to the second problem, watch this thing get pushed heavily at the education market in the fall.
I imagine multi-touch will be natural and integral enough that people will forego the mouse altogether. Although, I suppose a magic mouse might fit the bill (haven't used one yet).
People whose computing needs are basic enough that this can serve as a primary computer?
You say that as if it is a small market. It seems to me that it covers most of what most people do with a home computer today. What is the iPad incapable of that the average computer user can be expected to miss?
I'm a power user
What do you mean by this, exactly? I mean, how would I know if I am a power user or not?
A computer user basically uses a computer to do the following:
1) Surf the web,
2) Check email,
3) IM chat,
4) Download/purchase digital media files,
5) Manage/share your digital photos,
6) Watch movies,
7) Play games, and
8) Author documents, spreadsheets, and presentations.
Anyone who does more with their computer than the above and isn't afraid to tinker with the operating system or install/remove programs usually considers themselves a "power user". One thing I just realized is that all the things a "Power User" does in a Windows or Linux environment as compared to a regular user is trivially easy to do in Mac OS X, to the point where the distinction is meaningless.
Am I a power user if I surf Hacker News with Internet Explorer 6? What if I surf Yahoo News using IceWeasel with thirty extentions?
Manage/share your digital photos
Am I a power user if I use iPhoto to remove red-eye from pictures taken with my DSLR? What if if I use Lightroom to do the same thing with pictures from my crappy old point-and-shoot?
Play games
Am I a power user if I play Crysis on my eMachine? What if I play Solitaire on my overclocked quad-SLI i7 "rig"?
Anyone who does more...usually considers themselves a "power user"
I don't, which is why I'm perpetually confused by the term. It doesn't really seem like a useful distinction.
I think your list of negatives is the big sell of the iPad for most computer users... of which there are many on this planet who don't care about open source or installing different broswers or jailbreaking or any of the other reasons most HN readers won't want one of these devices.
It plays video, and runs apps, and syncs with iTunes, but so does my iPhone and so does my macbook. It's too big to fit in your pocket, so you need a bag for it, but why not just put my macbook in the bag?
I'm a power user and I demand a lot from my computers. That's why I jailbroke my iPhone; it just doesn't do enough out of the box. The iPad, like the iPhone, is a closed, sandboxed platform.