The so-called "domino theory" hypothesized that Communism could be modeled as a sort of ideological contagion. If one country became Communist, its neighbors were more likely to become Communist. So if left unchecked, Communism would spread throughout the world in a giant, red wave, leaving America as the last remaining bastion of freedom in the whole universe.
This theory was given additional credence because apparently, the Communists believed in it, too.
Well, it turns out that theory was just so much hot air.
Laos, Cambodia ended up Communist (though, ironically, it was Kissinger and the USA who ended up tolerating the Khmer Rouge as a pawn against the USSR and Vietnam, and Vietnam who ended up removing the Khmer Rouge from power and replacing them with a puppet state). It's also worth mentioning that Malaysia was fighting off a Communist insurgency, though that was pretty much dead by 1960.
And, perhaps most importantly, Indonesia had the largest (non-ruling) Communist Party in the world, with a seven figure membership. Had Vietnam been re-united under Communist rule, it's hard to anticipate how it would have developed. (1965 ended any chance of Communist revolution, there, though, with the US-supported mass murder of 500k+ CP members and Indonesian Chinese).
Even India and then-East Pakistan had to deal with a background level of Communist terrorism. We've got the benefit of the present to be able to poo-poo others' choices, but it was a genuinely big deal back then, and even now I'm not sure how things would have developed differently with a united Communist Vietnam in 1960.
ETA: Thailand and the Phillipines also had fairly active Communist insurgencies, though it seems their governments were able to put them down without too much difficulty.
ETA Again: As another counterfactual to build intuition: had the KMT beaten Mao in the 1940's, would there be a Communist Vietnam? A North Korea? The latter almost certainly not. The former is less definite--I'd personally expect an authoritarian anti-colonial regime. Something like Burma, with better outcomes than it because of regression toward the mean. A Communist Vietnam conditioned on a Nationalist China seems highly unlikely to me.
Exactly. Korea itself of course has been dealing with communists.
Burma and Laos had communist insurgencies. The CP of Laos, too, is an offshoot of the Vietnamese CP.
Most of Africa and South America had strong communist parties too.
It's quite simple. The CI (communist internatinal) was a world-imperialist organisation, and was trying to take over governments all over the world, following the Leninist model that had been 'successful' in Russia.
I look at it more in terms of concrete, material support: if you're geographically near a Communist state, that Communist state has a strong interest in undermining your government for its own ends. It's also far easier for them to supply material and men, rely on social networks to diffuse propaganda, etc. A Communist Vietnam IMO makes a Communist Indonesia and even India much more likely (which would be a disaster on a huge scale); South Africa or Peru, though, next to no effect, or maybe even a negative effect.
The real genius of Kissinger was realizing the abstraction of a unified Communist block was pretty faulty, and national interests superseded any ideological fidelity to the Communist cause.
realizing the abstraction of a unified Communist block was pretty faulty, and national interests superseded any ideological fidelity to the Communist cause.
Interesting perspective. I think sino-soviet split, which was
ideological, not nationalist, led Viet Nam to align with Moscow and
Pol Pot with Beijing. This split was exploited.
In what sense was it hot air? Saloth Sar (better known as Pol Pot), radicalised by the French communist party, trained in Moscow, Belgrade and Beijing, took over neighbouring Cambodia, aided by the communists in Hanoi. Indeed the Cambodian Communist party was an offshoot of Viet Nam's People's Army (the armed forces of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam).
The domino theory was a good one, because, as you point out yourself, it described the explicit modus operandi of the communists. Where it failed, it failed primarily because the communists received serious pushback.
It failed because the "domino" states represented an additional support burden on the Communist core states of Russia and China, who were themselves split ideologically. The Cold War basically prevented some internal conflict within the Communist Bloc by providing an external menace and scapegoat. But it was also economic warfare, turning what would have been a shooting war into another kind of money-spending contest.
Rather than building momentum, additional satellite nations just stressed the central powers economically. In theory, it would have been a self-supporting revolution, but in practice, it looked like just another overextended empire.
But it's too easy to criticize with the benefit of hindsight. They had no way of knowing back then the typical failure modes of Communist nations.
My hypothesis is that a better anti-Communist strategy would have been for the non-Communist nations to offer generous asylum/refugee-based immigration programs to those fleeing from the threat of Communist rebels in their home countries. Aside from that, stay out of the internal politics of the Communist bloc. Sadly, this is now untestable, so nobody should give it more than a few moments of light consideration.
The Cold War basically prevented some internal conflict within the Communist Bloc by providing an external menace and scapegoat.
That's an interesting theory, but I'm not sure I can agree with it. Before the Sino-Soviet split, the communist world was really just one state, the Soviet union and everybody else was but a satellite.
better anti-Communist strategy would have been for the non-Communist nations to offer generous asylum/refugee-based immigration programs
That is more or less exactly what West Germany did with refugees from East Germany. It was extremely successful, until the East build the wall and made fleeing next to impossible.
yes. But it wasn't obvious at the time. Part of the reason it turned out to be hot air, because communists failed to execute on this strategy, at least in part because they had to fight against non communists. It was a dynamic system, not a static one
This theory was given additional credence because apparently, the Communists believed in it, too.
Well, it turns out that theory was just so much hot air.