Bet me what? That SHANCOMP will go lower from here? And I assume you already know that your payout will be skewed: options price in a higher chance of downside than upside already so you should probably pay me $7 if it rallies against my $5 liability if it falls. Point is: this "China is tanking" idea is on everybody's lips and the surprise risk is now a rally.
> our payout will be skewed: options price in a higher chance of downside than upside already so you should probably pay me $7 if it rallies against my $5 liability if it falls
No doubt, but the market in Hacker News Shanghai Composite side-bets is not big and liquid so you may not be able to find someone to offer you $7, and if you're that confident in your thesis you should be willing to accept $5 in that case. ;) It's OK though, I'll go to $7.
