Certainly the rate of increase has slowed -- which is an accomplishment, relative some other countries' quadrupling of population since 1950. But Egypt has still gone from a desert country of 28m in 1960 that relies on the extortion of diminishing water supplies from Ethiopia to... a desert country of 82m in 2012. The Arab Spring was directly related to the higher price of heavily subsidized bread in North Africa due to a minor spike in corn prices that year.
Even if the birth rate fell flat today (and as you noted, the opposite is happening), can you honestly predict any future for Egypt other than Malthusian failure? The Aswan dam was specifically built in a rare fit of foresight of this exact future... and relies heavily on Ethiopian/Sudanese submission to Egyptian riparian rights. I think it's fair to say that Egypt is extremely overwhelmed by its population growth.
Certainly the rate of increase has slowed -- which is an accomplishment, relative some other countries' quadrupling of population since 1950. But Egypt has still gone from a desert country of 28m in 1960 that relies on the extortion of diminishing water supplies from Ethiopia to... a desert country of 82m in 2012. The Arab Spring was directly related to the higher price of heavily subsidized bread in North Africa due to a minor spike in corn prices that year.
Even if the birth rate fell flat today (and as you noted, the opposite is happening), can you honestly predict any future for Egypt other than Malthusian failure? The Aswan dam was specifically built in a rare fit of foresight of this exact future... and relies heavily on Ethiopian/Sudanese submission to Egyptian riparian rights. I think it's fair to say that Egypt is extremely overwhelmed by its population growth.