reductionism, ur doin it wrong. when we make simpler abstract models of complex systems it's because we have an axiomatic understanding of the complex system. you have to make sure all the complex variables cancel each other out* properly before you can ignore them and confidently state "this model accurately represents the underlying reality".
*this is a simplification obviously. lots of models involve not canceling out but other statistical techniques (like linearizing the relationship between two variables), which is part of what the climate debate is all about: are these simplifications valid? the reason "climategate" is a big deal is because it is evidence that no, no they are not.
*this is a simplification obviously. lots of models involve not canceling out but other statistical techniques (like linearizing the relationship between two variables), which is part of what the climate debate is all about: are these simplifications valid? the reason "climategate" is a big deal is because it is evidence that no, no they are not.