I never said that change wasn't coming. I said drivers would remain. There are still pilots.
High quality auto-pilots have been around for at least 20 years in airbus. Planes capable of flying and landing for longer than that (takeoff is harder than landing because the plane needs to know what the wind is doing).
Pilots are around to deal with exceptional circumstances and to accept responsibility (loading, security, risk assessment, maintenance, health). The same will happen with trucks. The risk is entirely different with a commercial enterprise than it is with an individual, and corporations are very happy to spend money to avoid risk. Yes, it's a conflation of the management roles of the Captain, with the task roles of Pilot, but there will be a person, and we will say they fly it, and if there are humans on the plane, they will be on it.
Pilot and co-pilot add (rough estimate) $200/hr to a flight cost. There are 140 people on the plane (United A320), so it adds $12 per person to have two pilots on the plane for a flight across the US.
High quality auto-pilots have been around for at least 20 years in airbus. Planes capable of flying and landing for longer than that (takeoff is harder than landing because the plane needs to know what the wind is doing).
Pilots are around to deal with exceptional circumstances and to accept responsibility (loading, security, risk assessment, maintenance, health). The same will happen with trucks. The risk is entirely different with a commercial enterprise than it is with an individual, and corporations are very happy to spend money to avoid risk. Yes, it's a conflation of the management roles of the Captain, with the task roles of Pilot, but there will be a person, and we will say they fly it, and if there are humans on the plane, they will be on it.
Pilot and co-pilot add (rough estimate) $200/hr to a flight cost. There are 140 people on the plane (United A320), so it adds $12 per person to have two pilots on the plane for a flight across the US.
[1] http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/tech_ops/read.main/... [2] http://www.quora.com/How-often-are-commercial-flights-landed... [3] http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/