The two keys to understanding whatsapp valuation are that they had established ubiquitous cheap all-you-can-whatsapp packages with telecoms in developing markets, which quickly became all-you-can-whatsapp-and-Facebook, and are now being parlayed somewhat clumsily into Internet.org.
The second thing is the growth of messaging-as-platform in markets like China, where everyone is using wechat to query bank balances, order tickets, etc. It's a commercial platform, and to talk to young people in Shenzhen who's primary (maybe only) computer is a smartphone, the idea of having these interactions through a website is comical. It's really something to witness, and totally unexpected for those of us who grew up on desktop computers and laptops. FB is trying to turn messenger into a platform now in the U.S., and they have the whatsapp platform to fall back on or develop in other countries. Whatsapp could have become a threat to FB's growth in developing markets by adopting wechat's platform and timeline features, so the valuation was defensive. Time will tell if there is potential for messaging as a revenue generating platform outside of China/Asia.
The best counter-argument to the valuation is that Whatsapp had something like 20 engineers on staff when they were acquired. It's hard to imagine a future where a global messaging platform doesn't continue to need less employees to manage it. I figure that eventually, such important, but cheap-to-run infrastructure seems like something that will end up being run by a Mozilla/Wikimedia style foundation on donations.
I'm confused. I like your context, the explanation of why IM might be a big deal. I don't have that background and might be using IM in a weird/non-mainstream way and certainly don't get global trends.
But then you say 'wechat'. Note again: I don't use any of these apps. It seems that this is a competitor? How does "A competitor is really successful" translate to "you guys are doing something valuable"? And if you'd say "Well, any IM application with some traction can take away that spot again", how can WhatsApp make sure that a) it is the one to pull that off and b) it won't go away again when the next IM app comes around, and this time it's GREEN! And - I don't know - has cute cat and puppy images as part of the built-in 'emoticons'/icons to distinguish itself from the feature set of the inferior IM apps?
I understand that there might be a huge market for IM applications. I don't understand the market for any _specific_ IM application.
The way I see it? WhatsApp is boring. I can't do anything new or interesting. At all.
I agree with you that the hold of these apps can be surprisingly tenuous, and the history of desktop IM client switching would bear this out.
However, there's also a good argument that mobile messaging was a shift to a new platform (and the inevitable replacement of SMS). There are some fairly resilient network effects, mostly geographically focussed, Whatsapp, iMessage, Wechat. Wechat is just further ahead than the other networks in showing what a messaging platform can develop into, a platform, rather than merely a replacement for SMS. Naturally Wechat has also been sheltered from competition by the great firewall. So Wechat is an indispensable app if you live in China, but in the rest of the world almost no one knows that it exists. You don't only use Wechat to chat with your friends, but also to query your bank balance, pay at McDonalds, and shop online. It's all very weird, because the UX is chat, but if your first computer was a smart phone then it probably feels more natural.
Even though the switching costs between mobile messaging apps seem much lower with mobile and notifications (it's easy to have a dozen installed), it still takes a lot to convince all your contacts to install something new. If these apps become platforms that people get used to using to using to interact with their bank or sirline it beomces harder to unseat..
Consider how just a few mobile apps not being available on blackberry or windows phone makes switching to these minor platforms difficult.
The second thing is the growth of messaging-as-platform in markets like China, where everyone is using wechat to query bank balances, order tickets, etc. It's a commercial platform, and to talk to young people in Shenzhen who's primary (maybe only) computer is a smartphone, the idea of having these interactions through a website is comical. It's really something to witness, and totally unexpected for those of us who grew up on desktop computers and laptops. FB is trying to turn messenger into a platform now in the U.S., and they have the whatsapp platform to fall back on or develop in other countries. Whatsapp could have become a threat to FB's growth in developing markets by adopting wechat's platform and timeline features, so the valuation was defensive. Time will tell if there is potential for messaging as a revenue generating platform outside of China/Asia.
The best counter-argument to the valuation is that Whatsapp had something like 20 engineers on staff when they were acquired. It's hard to imagine a future where a global messaging platform doesn't continue to need less employees to manage it. I figure that eventually, such important, but cheap-to-run infrastructure seems like something that will end up being run by a Mozilla/Wikimedia style foundation on donations.