People say that, but from what I've heard there is plenty of lithium in the world to increase use 20% every year for 30 years before we need to get more creative in how we mine it. That's a huge total increase and means that electric cars totally are scalable.
Do you have information supporting the idea that electric cars aren't scalable? My understanding is that they definitely are scalable.
There is definitely enough lithium in the world to increase the production of lithium-ion EVs. From how I understand it it though, it is unlikely that lithium-ion EV could replace every car currently running in the world.
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/eason2/
Charging is where the scaling problems come in. If everybody in your neighborhood plugs in their Tesla at their home at night and/or at their office during the day, it will likely cause brownouts and blackouts in areas with grid service that's already marginal for current demand. Hence Musks's interest in load-shifting technology.
Utilities have existing techniques for distributing that load. They already work with smelters and other large power users to coordinate their power demands.
In some places utilities are offering discounted electricity prices if the car charging infrastructure is hooked up to their smart metering/control system. This allows the company to signal when cars should start/stop charging.
There's no reason they can't work with car makers to introduce two way signalling between the charging infrastructure and the grid - the car can tell the grid that it needs to use X kW by Y time, and the grid can communicate the current permitted load.
Potentially with some option for the customer to pay a premium to charge immediately at a higher rate.
it isn't so much how many people charging, its the ability of people to charge where they live and the lack of ability to truly quick charge the battery.
As in, damn the kids left the car unplugged and I have to work. even thirty minutes at a super charger is not a good solution.
So it comes down to a compromise, a good range extender technology and batteries for the majority of driving. That until truly faster charging can be achieved with house hold wiring.
> As in, damn the kids left the car unplugged and I have to work. even thirty minutes at a super charger is not a good solution.
I don't see this as something to worry about - it's just a household habit problem. Pretty much every new device introduces some, and people quickly adapt to use the device properly.
The argument is silly. The kids could also forget (or just not bother) to put gas in the car and leave it on empty. Yet strangely we manage to make do with gas-powered cars.
You're assuming a world where 80% of the people already have an EV. You don't think most of those people will also have solar panels and battery backups at home (from which to charge the car at night).
Do you have information supporting the idea that electric cars aren't scalable? My understanding is that they definitely are scalable.