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Anyone interested in Logic and Probability should take the time to read through (at least) chapters 1 & 2 of Jaynes' Probability: the Logic of Science [0]. Jaynes' is the arch-Bayesian and in these chapters mathematically develops what is essentially an alternate Universe model of probability which, in his view, arrives as the natural extension of Aristotlean logic. There's no "coin flipping" in these chapters, and when he finally derives the method calculating probabilities the fact that his model matches with coin-flipping models is written off almost as a happy accident. If you're familiar with Bayesian analysis but have not read Jaynes it is very likely that you aren't familiar with quite how (delightfully) extreme his views are.

Jaynes' fundamental metaphor through the book is building a "reasoning robot" so anyone interested in the intersection of logic, probability and AI will get many interesting insights from this book.

[0] PDF of the preprint: http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf




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