On: Han Solo and Bayesian Priors

[elliott34]

Does the author have something backwards or do I?

P(RateOfSuccess|Successes) = Beta(α,β)

"In Bayesian terms, C3PO's estimate of the true rate of success given observed data is referred to as the likelihood."

BUT we know likelihood(rateofsuccess|data) = probability(data|rate of success).

I am confused.

[jmcohen → elliott34]

"Likelihood" can refer to both p(param|data) and p(data|param). See [1] for an example of the first, and [2] for the second.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likelihood_function

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem#Events