He's a cross-eyed lunatic. There's no conspiracy on the part of Russia involving the disappearance of this aircraft.
People had a rough idea where Air France Flight 447 was when it went down, and it still took them two years to find it. No one has even a faint idea of where MH370 crashed, making the chances of finding it at all very, very, slim.
The ocean is a shockingly massive place which is a fact that Wise would discount in favor of some fantastically absurd notion that Russia somehow snuck an aircraft all the way from Malaysia to anywhere else without being spotted is ridiculous.
Unfortunately, he's going to view all this exposure as an affirmation of his theory instead of a confirmation that he needs to seek professional help.
Oh come now, claiming he is mentally ill takes a little far. Do I think his theory is prima facie ridiculous? Of course, but everyone gets a little wound up thinking about something very hard for a long period of time.
Assuming this theory is wrong (and I assume it is) it is interesting to consider why it has become so popular.
Firstly, there is no compelling counter-theory. The consensus view (the plane turned off its flight path for an unknown reason, flew in a mostly unknown direction for an unknown period of time and then crashed somewhere in the Indian ocean) has so many thing that are unknown that any theory offering certainty is attractive.
Secondly, the "Russians stole the plane because of something to do with some Ukrainians" fits the current political narrative very well. Confirmation bias means people are likely consider it even when they probably shouldn't.
Thirdly... maybe it true. Anyone have a better theory? (See how easy it is?)
Theory A) Putin had 3 Russian Spetsnaz hijack the plane, kill all the passengers on board, and navigated to an abandoned space launch and landing facility, so in a year or two it could be loaded up with explosives and used in a first-strike terrorist attack against the USA.
Theory B) Plane crashed at unexpected location in ocean that covers 3/4 of earth surface.
I know which one the media outlets that are booking this guy are going to be pushing come Monday. It has all the right juicy bits in it. And the other one is kind of bland.
Given that used 777-200s are fairly cheap and common on the leasing market, Theory A key seems an utterly Bond Villanesque way of obtaining an airframe.
You'd have to reprogram its transponder and slap-on a coat of paint anyhow, so why not just hire one from ILFC through a couple of proxy companies? Much easier and less risky. Operate it on routine 'cargo' services until needed...
I like to think it's become popular because people have a hard time accepting that we can just 'lose' a plane in our era.
The incident runs counter to the carefully managed, or at least well understood framing that people apply to the world at large through their lived experience, so seeking a 'human' explanation is somehow more comforting.
Exactly. Even people who fly a lot (like me) are in the confines of what feels like a very controlled system. If I can get three connecting flights across two continents with only two hours of layover, how can we just lose a plane?
It's easy to forget the world is really big, and that technology does break.
I had never read before that it was known the plane did a 180, but the Malaysian government denied for a week (why would they deny it..) And then the plane was on a zigzag course and traveling fast.
So we don't know what happened, but based on that alone it seems like something fishy.
The whole investigation is a complete disaster because no one has a clue what happened.
That means that everytime someone said what they thought happened and it turned out to be wrong it looks like a conspiracy. People denied things because they said something different earlier, and they didn't want to appear wrong.
It's fairly likely that foul play on the aircraft itself was involved, but it's pretty unlikely that there was a multiple-government coverup involving Malaysia, China and Australia.
For most governments, where lying does not come at a very high premium, the first instinct is to not tell the truth, but the information that appears to be the most beneficial at the moment. Knowing the truth is an advantage, why give it to others if one can avoid it without any major repercussions? So, one should not make a very far reaching conclusions from a government official lying - it doesn't necessarily mean they were involved in some conspiracy, they may just been routinely lying to not reveal something that has no relation to the case in point, such as something that may paint somebody in unfavorable light, or some minor secret of totally unrelated nature.
Additionally, when criminal wrongdoing is suspected, the authorities routinely lie about what they know about the case, in hopes that the criminals would operate under wrong model of their knowledge and thus be at disadvantage, and also they would be able to distinguish somebody genuinely knowing something about the matter from somebody just watching the news.
I remember the reason given at the time. The capabilities of your military radars are mostly a secret, and by revealing that they were able to spot the airplane so far away, they were telling a lot of information to the other regional powers.
To imply that this MH370 was pre planned using knowledge of the fact that an Immarsat sattelite low on fuel would "wobble" and thus lead to misleading doppler data etc. is SO far fetched as to be out of hand ridiculous.
YET, MH370 definitely is FOUL PLAY, and not an "accident" or even series of accidents aboard.
The only thing i can think of is that the predominant global authorities of our time (US & anglosphere) DON'T WANT this plane to be found. Leading a side show into nothingness (or vacant areas) would be easy to do, especially if you KNOW where the plane really is. Question is WHY?
I'm not sure if this guy is more obsessed with the plane or the publicity. Either way, is anyone taking bets on how long until he loses his wife over it?
No, that's not a very nice thing to say. Everyone can get a little obsessed over their projects or ideas from time to time. There's no karmic penalty for being wrong about a unsolved mystery nor should there be.
People had a rough idea where Air France Flight 447 was when it went down, and it still took them two years to find it. No one has even a faint idea of where MH370 crashed, making the chances of finding it at all very, very, slim.
The ocean is a shockingly massive place which is a fact that Wise would discount in favor of some fantastically absurd notion that Russia somehow snuck an aircraft all the way from Malaysia to anywhere else without being spotted is ridiculous.
Unfortunately, he's going to view all this exposure as an affirmation of his theory instead of a confirmation that he needs to seek professional help.