My thinking is that the Saudi actions right now are more geopolitical than they are aimed at the oil market. I guess the oil market itself is pretty geopolitical, but I see a strong possibility for some anti-Russia, anti-Isis quid pro quo between the US and Saudi Arabia.
(It's win-win for them if they put the pinch on new production, I'm just not sure they are hugely concerned with that)
Oil futures for 2020 are trading at $67/barrel. If you think that's low, maybe you should buy some. If you think that's right, maybe this will last more then a few months.
I stick to equities and food commodities for trading. Trading oil at my scale (<$10MM/year volume) is like walking into a Mos Eisley cantina inebriated and with cash hanging out of your wallet. I'll make you a Long Bet [1] though if you're interested (a beer of your choice if you're right).
I'll give you that point. Although note that Russia, Iran, and ISIS are sanctioned right now, so keep that in mind for the short-term. Supply is BOTH artificially constrained and artificially inflated right now.
But it isn't obvious to me that gas prices should go up or down.
