It doesn't even have to be predicted to not be a black swan. To qualify it has to be so far outside the range of events accepted as likely that it breaks models used to mitigate risk. This was nothing like that.
A 20% move in a cross between two free floating currencies probably would qualify because the only things that would cause it are catastrophic events (themselves black swans).
A 20% swing after a peg is dropped is exactly the kind of thing that a model would predict, therefore this could only be a black swan if the peg being dropped was absolutely unthinkable which it obviously wasn't.
A 20% move in a cross between two free floating currencies probably would qualify because the only things that would cause it are catastrophic events (themselves black swans).
A 20% swing after a peg is dropped is exactly the kind of thing that a model would predict, therefore this could only be a black swan if the peg being dropped was absolutely unthinkable which it obviously wasn't.