I'm not sure you're responding to my post. I agree with regards to activity levels and caloric intake—but I'm saying it is worth investigating further.
It reminds me a lot of the lead hypothesis in regards to crime. The simple model would state that more people in prison and harsher law enforcement causes crime to decrease. However, if the lead hypothesis is true, then we can stop wasting resources on crowded prisons and draconian law enforcement, instead focusing on getting lead out of the environment. Or, more realistically, do something in between those extremes and at a policy level be far more successful.
> I agree with regards to activity levels and caloric intake—but I'm saying it is worth investigating further.
Absolutely. Science is worthy for its own sake, it doesn't need an extrinsic policy motivation.
As for falling crime, my understanding is that the criminologists are still arguing about that one. Especially since it seems to be a global phenomenon.
Check out the Mother Jones article by Kevin Drum. It's got quite a lot of references. The lead hypothesis is fascinating. The change in crime tracks lead levels internationally as well. While it is probably not the _only_ cause of the late 20th century crime wave, it's likely one of them, and might be a major one.
I have to wonder if there's a strong link to poverty or economic stagnation as well. With income disparity reportedly increasing by leaps and bounds, it's possible the crime of the last century and the recent violent uprisings in the US were all influenced by the economy.
It's intuitive, but I'm not sure if there's a causal link. The 20th century saw an incredible increase in income equality and that was the highest point in the recent crime wave. In fact, the increase in income inequality in the US over the last thirty years has coincided with the drastic decrease in violent crime, which is super interesting because it implies that those variables might be more independent than originally thought.
It reminds me a lot of the lead hypothesis in regards to crime. The simple model would state that more people in prison and harsher law enforcement causes crime to decrease. However, if the lead hypothesis is true, then we can stop wasting resources on crowded prisons and draconian law enforcement, instead focusing on getting lead out of the environment. Or, more realistically, do something in between those extremes and at a policy level be far more successful.