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From what I can tell, solar doesn't contribute a significant amount of electricity. About 0.25%. Coal is about 40%. I think we're comparing the wrong thing.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3




Yes, the absolute share is still very small. It's growing quite rapidly though. As of last January, the doubling rate was 7.5 months.

Very rapid growth from a small base is not the sort of behavior that's likely to continue long, but at that rate, of growth, solar power would be a majority component of U.S. generating capacity in only 8 years.

I suspect it'll take somewhat longer than that, but there's no question the sector's expanding tremendously.


It sounds like you understand what you're saying is bs, but then you continue to say it anyway. We both know that it's not going to follow a "Moore's Doubling Law". Can anyone take a realistic deeper look into what the possibilities of solar are over the next decade?


There are a number of places you can find such research.

The US EIA (Energy Information Administration), part of the Department of Energy, regularly posts forecasts. http://www.eia.gov/

There is research published by the National Research Labs (also part of DOE), particularly the National Renewable Energy Lab in Colorado, NREL. See their Renewable Electricity Futures Study: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

The Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, an industry research organization. http://epri.com/

Various large utilities, particularly in the Western US, post forecasts. See especially PG&E and Southern California Edison.

Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) are among the private research organizations looking at renewables and future projections. http://www.rmi.org/

WorldWatch Institute looks at many factors including energy: http://www.worldwatch.org/

Cleantechnica seems to be a pretty good online renewable energy source, without much of the fluff that infects the sector.

Internationally, the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as various government organizations, particularly the European Commission. CSIRO is an Australian research organization comparable to the US National Labs.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has an impressively comprehensive report on renewable energy technologies: http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report/

There's the REN21 report: http://www.ren21.net/gsr

The Fraunhofer Institute has extensive information on Germany's renewables growth ("Energiewende"): http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/

My point is that the growth rates are spectacular, and as I recall have been markedly exceeding earlier projections.

These and other sources are referenced on the RenewableTech FAQ: http://www.reddit.com/r/RenewableTech/wiki/techfaq#wiki_reso...




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