Hmm, I'm on the other end actually. I think that for humans to go to Mars it will have to eschew a profit motive, which companies like SpaceX simply can't do.
As NASA is the best funded space agency for the richest and most technologically advanced nation on Earth, I'll believe the odds are stacked in their favor that they'll be behind the first astronauts there.
Of course, if our politicians don't stop bumbling around we may very soon not be the most advanced nation on Earth which would be unfortunate.
When it was a race, NASA did good! Hopefully other countries will join in and spur us on. Even Republicans might be able to get around to the idea of showing off American exceptionalism (I think it's bullshit, American exceptionalism has been predicated off a very rich country investing lots of money into research. But call it what you will, it is what it is.).
I'm fairly confident that I'll see humans on Mars before I die. I just don't believe NASA will be behind the effort.