This is a common fallacy. Bike thieves do run around with steel cutters in broad daylight, but the probability of having your bike stolen is much less if you lock it, than it is if you don't.
The fallacy arises that conflates a small number of persistent threat actors, with the much larger population of opportunistic actors.
A better way to understand this the expected loss with and without an alarm, versus the cost of acquiring and operating that alarm. My claim is that the cost of such a system would be greatly reduced by its ease of installation and maintenance. That its presence would be at least as effective as a standard 'tape & magnets' type alarm system, and so would be a better overall value than that those older wired systems.
The fallacy arises that conflates a small number of persistent threat actors, with the much larger population of opportunistic actors.
A better way to understand this the expected loss with and without an alarm, versus the cost of acquiring and operating that alarm. My claim is that the cost of such a system would be greatly reduced by its ease of installation and maintenance. That its presence would be at least as effective as a standard 'tape & magnets' type alarm system, and so would be a better overall value than that those older wired systems.