In 2013, the world average price per GJ of coal was $3.63, of natural gas $6.81, and of oil $18.22. That's a factor of 5 ready for arbitrage in a $5T industry, sitting there for years at a time.[1]
The average age of cars on the road is 11 years, and apparently rising.[2]
Technology itself is notorious for lock-in effects. Windows 10 was announced today... I use a Dvorak keyboard (1936) but most still use QWERTY. You can ponder when Bret Victor's dreams will come true. In teaching technology, we're arguably no further than Papert was in 1980.[3][4]
In Garrett's model (op. cit.) the value of civilization's accumulated wealth in years of current production (GDP) does fall over time. In 1980 it was about 60 years. Today it's about 45 years. (In 1820, it was about 300 years.)
The average age of cars on the road is 11 years, and apparently rising.[2]
Technology itself is notorious for lock-in effects. Windows 10 was announced today... I use a Dvorak keyboard (1936) but most still use QWERTY. You can ponder when Bret Victor's dreams will come true. In teaching technology, we're arguably no further than Papert was in 1980.[3][4]
In Garrett's model (op. cit.) the value of civilization's accumulated wealth in years of current production (GDP) does fall over time. In 1980 it was about 60 years. Today it's about 45 years. (In 1820, it was about 300 years.)
[1] http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-econom...
[2] http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-ihs-automotiv...
[3] http://el.media.mit.edu/logo-foundation/logo/
[4] http://logothings.wikispaces.com/