I agree with most of your post, but I don't find the idea of Japan not attacking Pearl Harbor very plausible/useful. It had been clear for years that, given Japan's imperial ambitions and the US's desire to maintain their own influence over the region, that the two would come into conflict eventually. Japan at the time would not accept kowtowing to US power and influence without a fight. Exactly how and when that fight would start could have varied any number of ways, but I think the fight was inevitable.
Arguably, Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was the best move they could have made, considering their position. They did succeed in limiting US naval power in the Pacific for the 6 months that Yamamoto estimated.
Arguably, Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was the best move they could have made, considering their position. They did succeed in limiting US naval power in the Pacific for the 6 months that Yamamoto estimated.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoroku_Yamamoto#Attack_on_Pear...