Idle observation - Windows Phone year-on-year growth is way higher than Android or iOS. Are you going to write your next app for that?
We don't, actually, have enough data to see quite how Play revenue is growing. But the really relevant point is that on roughly double the users, the payout is half. I'm not sure why that should be an absurd observation - you could try addressing that, but perhaps insults are easier.
Having portability to Windows Phone is a concern, and it is something that I am increasingly considering because it looks like an emerging, important platform. I prefer techniques and tools that allow me to cater to a multitude of platforms, because users are my customers, not platforms. I am not beholden to Apple or Google, and I don't serve in their name.
However your point is comically specious in the context -- Android Play Store sales went from $0.9B, to $2.0B, to $5.0B over successive years (these numbers are in Google's yearlies, despite your repeated claims that they're mysteriously shrouded. They're as transparent as Apple's numbers). Android Play Store sales right now are where App Store sales were last year. Where were the people talking about the dire results of the App Store last year? In fact, quite contrary it was held as an incredible, unparamounted success, by people like you. And not only is the Play Store already there, it is seeing extraordinary growth.
I'm not sure why that should be an absurd observation
Your own points are contradictory, holding the dichotomy of the rich Android users (who all apparently were just waiting for a larger iPhone) versus the poor Android user, but then mashing them together into one universally "poorer" Android user.
Android is the platform of all demographics. We know that from the famous city analysis of Android/iOS usage of twitter, where Android was dominant in the poorer areas of town, and similar to iOS in the rich areas of town. That is a great thing about the platform -- it is inclusive and lifts all boats -- and it is utterly reprehensible when some people hold this as a bizarre negative, as if platform association with the less wealthy brings it down.
It seems probable that the people in the richer areas are spending in the store. The people in the poorer areas aren't. That's life of consumable items and varying spending money. There is no great mystery to it. And your contention is that since all of those Android users with money are going to race to iPhone (the same story we've heard with every iOS release for years), there goes the store.
So how does a per capita basis make any sense? Oh because all facts need to be contrived into the message of Ben Evans?
I apologize for resorting to "insults", but it seems that reality has an insult-based bias in the case of analyzing your various creations. You are selling to the converted.
We don't, actually, have enough data to see quite how Play revenue is growing. But the really relevant point is that on roughly double the users, the payout is half. I'm not sure why that should be an absurd observation - you could try addressing that, but perhaps insults are easier.