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Have you ever heard of hindsight bias? Many experiments have shown that people overestimate how easy it would've been to guess future outcomes. They did this by actually asking people to guess certain outcomes, then asked them a year later what their guess was - people's self-reported guesses were usually off, in the direction of what actually happened.

One of the problems with this is that our brain tricks us into believing that we're better guessers than other people, because hey, look at all the times we were right in the past! Except we weren't right - it's just our memory deceiving us.

All of this is to say - Google hires extremely smart people. I would really hesitate to call them incompetent, both because what you say was "sure to happen" is a big dose of hindsight, and also because you have no idea what their goals were - for all you know, they took a risk that the project would either stall or become super-successful, so they shot for the moon. That's a legitimate option.




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