thanks. slideshare was so slow. try to download it from slide share and hit a register wall. sometimes trying to make things fancy makes things worse. great content non the less :)
iPad growth has slowed as it was originally designed as a high end device, so most people who would buy one have bought theirs (same with those replacing computers with them). It's hard to justify spending the money on something that only offers a slight portability upgrade on a MacBook Air unless you do something with it unique, like read comics.
The interesting piece is overall tablet use growing, as the non-iPad options continue to improve and offer a cheap alternative for doing things like going to a coffee shop or browsing on CalTrain.
'Ain't bout what you walk away from, it's bout what you walk away with.' -Lil Wayne
I'd summarize the end of this report (which for me is the best part with):
a) it doesn't matter if you're first-generation or second-generation as a founder
b) if your app or site or service can participate in China, you have 10x booster thrusters.
I figured this might appear on hacker news soon enough. If anyone has any questions about the tech behind this microsite (although it is pretty straightforward) let me know. We developed the site and the hosting to account for an enormous amount of traffic in a very short period of time. So far everything is working fine.
when I tried to view using firefox, the cpu bar kept high eating all the memory and unresponsive. I saw in firebug net tab that every slide was being fetch from slideshare in a loop. Does not happen in chrome.
I'm interested to hear the feedback. We did the design for the site and tested it extensively on mobile. What issue are you seeing? My email is in my profile if you want to drop me a line.
edit: The slideshare embed is having some issues on mobile and desktop unfortunately. Very slow. They are working on it.
From Slide 9: mobile usage as a % of web usage is now 25%. It was 14% last year.
This seems contrary to what we hear about native apps dominating smartphone usage. Obviously that web usage isn't "HTML5 Apps" per se and I'm sure apps dominate services like Facebook, Yelp, etc ... but that number and growth seems very significant.
It doesn't seem like that necessarily conflicts with native apps dominating smartphone usage - there's a significant number of use cases where a user wouldn't use an app, such as reading news articles linked from an app like Feedly. Mobile use is growing fast enough (and desktop is flat to shrinking) that a doubling of web usage may just represent the overall shift in usage patterns (i.e. desktop consumption of web moving to mobile.)
Slide 16 supports the apps over native story: app revenue is dominating browser advertising on an increasing basis.
Embedded browsers within native apps likely add serious growth for web usage. E.g. Facebook native app is hugely popular, and sends a lot of traffic to a lot of websites within the app's browser.
I think everybody's stats are getting thrown out by the tendency of iOS browsers (at least) to refresh page just about every time app or tab focus changes.
An open question - is Mary Meeker still taken as seriously as she was 15 years ago? I don't talk to enough people in the investor community to know either way.
Mary and others like Steve Milunovich at Morgan Stanley were in a rather unique place and time 15 years ago because the Internet was just becoming this very-important-thing and very few people really understood it. Today's a lot different. That said, this presentation is widely viewed as pretty important annual snapshot of certain trends. Note though that Mary is at KPCB [Edit: Corrected] these days so her focus is presumably a bit different than when she was employed in financial services.
Very impressive and helpful data/charts in the KPCB report. That being said, there is a saying on Wall St that if an economist (or anyone) could predict future, she wouldn't need any employment. One usually gets wiser as she ages, but I don't think predicting future is easier than 15 years ago.
At MS she was in the business of hyping their tech equities. What's her role now? Creating hype around the KPCB brand? I assume she's not an active investor.
They got sued for pumping and dumping tech stocks. Andy Kessler's writings make both Mary Meeker and Henry Blodget sound like really shady characters. He made Meeker sound a bit thick.
Indeed. In fact it's just a tad below what passes for state-of-art proprietary "analysis" for clients in that industry. You'll never, ever see error bars in those graphs, for instance; nor any non-hand-waving rationale for the implicit fungibility assumptions behind most (if not all) of their claims about "potential" ---like the notorious "~$30+ bn mobile market opportunity / print is overspent" one in slide 15, which blithely assumes that the value of user engagement with ads per unit of time spent ought to be the same regardless of the medium: be it a tiny smartphone screen in the middle of a stressful subway commute, or a full-page glossy magazine ad with enclosed perfume sample on a weekend evening.
Apart from the satiric element of such analytic uselessness though, I like these reports for what they reveal about the industry's collective anxieties and fixations ---tablet tablet tablet, social social social, ads ads ads, data data data, china china china. Cf for instance, in slide 90, this eye-opening jewel:
Biggest Re-Imagination of All = People Enabled With Mobile Devices + Sensors Uploading Troves of Findable & Sharable Data
If that is their "biggest re-imagination of all", then as you say there is no hope, indeed.
The ‘Made in USA’ slide (10) is nonsense. It shows a shift from non-USA OSes, Symbian and Linux to 'Made in USA' OSes, Android, iOS and Windows phone. But Android is built on Linux!
"USA controlled" may be a better way of putting it.
Android has a Linux kernel, but most of the OS is not what you'd find on a normal Linux desktop distro. It was started by Android, Inc. in California and is now developed almost entirely by Google.
HN is going downhill because more and more users down-vote comments not because they are fallacious or illogical, but because don't like them.
sp332's comment is fair, as far as I know, but so is mine. Android is a Linux distribution according to the Linux Foundation, Google's open-source chief Chris DiBona, and several journalists.[1] "We assess the initial effort needed to adapt the Linux kernel into Android and found that 99% of the function-alities of Linux kernel 2.6 were reused into Android, and only 0.7% of the reused files were modified to
implement the requirements of Android."[2]
I said the slide is "nonsense" because it is inconsistent in how it counts Linux-based OSes.
1. Still more runway for smartphone usage - 30% mobile penetration
2. Tablets growing with plenty of penetration opportunity - 400M+ tablets vs. 800M Laptops and 1.6B smartphones
3. Mobile internet install base will be 10x desktop install base
4. More mobile, more security problems
5. Things aren't so bubbly when compared to 2000
6. Youtube is teaching your kids and that's a good thing (my words)
7. Healthcare will hopefully get better with technology
8. People love chat apps and sharing videos + pics
9. Apps are unbundling: "There's an app for that..."
10. Turn all your content into lists and you will strike social distribution gold (my words)
11. Apps will save you time, money, find your next love, and do everything else for you same day by removing the friction of human interaction.
12. Any bitcoin based chart looks like a hockey stick (my words)
13. Big data slides - real time, sensors, cloud, data mining
14. Hardware costs down, cloud usage up
15. Online video is big and will be on your TV too
16. China
17. Drones