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You probably know this already, but I would be extremely wary of playing "active investor" with anything greater than 5-10% of my total portfolio.

I look at it this way: even if you believe it is possible to beat an index consistently through active management (which I don't), you're unlikely to do it without spending 80+ hours/wk focusing on it like the pros do.




I disagree. Most of the pros are pros at finance, but not in the industries they actually invest in. By having expertise in a particular industry, you may be able to recognize disconnects between most pros and reality. Case in point, if you recognized that traditional hard drives weren't really going to be displaced by SSD's back in 2011, and saw the major players start to consolidate through M&A thus reducing competition, and bought Seagate and Western Digital stocks then at mid single digit P/E's, you'd have done pretty well with a 3-4x return in as many years. All the pros seem to love these stocks now, but certainly didn't back then. Now that may have been an extreme case, but a clear example of how financial analysts speculate based on very shallow understanding of the companies they make bold predictions about. Any time they get it wrong, which is not uncommon, there is an investment opportunity. Perusing financial news of the industries you have expertise in for a few minutes a day is sufficient for spotting such opportunities. Or to look at it a another way, consider the 80 hours a week you already put into your own industry as investment research.

With that said, it's good to mix in some fundamentals with your contrarianism to reduce risk, and investing in companies that are actually making money. Twitter is not one of these companies. That's not to say that I'm bearish on Twitter, I just think it's far too risky to invest in or against given that its price is more affected by rampant speculation than economic realities.




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